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Global Markets Analysis – 31 May 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


31.05.2016 周二 等待美盘豆油的短线走势指引

美盘豆油7月合约,在昨日公共假期休市一天后,今天上午亚洲电子盘开盘为小阳K线表现,等待美盘夜间走势的指引。

大陆内盘油脂类商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,昨日周一盘中红盘中阳上涨,短线的反弹走势延续中。今天周二早盘跳空高开后走低,在缺少美盘具体走势指引情况下,内盘今天走势较为谨慎,只要今天阴K线仍在昨日的阳K线之内,那短线的小幅整理不予理会,继续短多观点对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,今天周二盘中小幅震荡,成交相对清淡,期价在上方60天均线位置暂时受到阻挡,等待美盘发力后方可向上突破,继续短线多单持有。

小结:全球油脂类商品从周期角度来说:长周期为筑大底后的看涨态势,中期操作层面为反弹上行之后的短暂回落整理,短周期角度为下跌之后的从新酝酿反弹走势。三者的期价运行周期不在一个共振范围内,因此走势上略显疲惫与彷徨,只有在长中短周期层面三者同时发生共振时候,方才是凌厉的上行或者下行行情,当前技术观察-尚不属于该种情况,因此我们心态上保持一种平和心态对待当前走势,首先以短线的操作为主,耐心等待后市期价在调整到共振周期时候的大行情发生。(共振-比如1000个人过桥,一种是单独个人为主的脚步凌乱的过桥而另一种是1000个人共同喊着口号1、2、3、4、5、6的脚步整齐的齐步过桥;后者情况属于共振式同一节奏,因此小桥会在共振时发生坍塌的概率更大)我们密切关注美盘豆油的具体走势,观点认为操作上:多单继续持仓不动。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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