Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 31 May 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


31.05.2017 周三 油脂类商品短线的回落整理行情延续中

截止昨日周二,美国农业部(USDA)农作物生长最新报告称,当前美国大豆种植率为67%。略低于市场预期的68%,此前一周为53%,上年同期为71%。美盘豆油上周5连阴下挫,5月29日本周一恰逢美国阵亡将士纪念日,CBOT市场休市一天,昨日5月30日周二,美豆油7月合约继续中阴下挫(6连阴),表明当前短线走势正如我们此前预期研判的结果相同—–为反弹上行之后的短线回落整理行情,技术观察美豆油7月合约,当前期价已经下挫到前一波反弹开始阶段(4月中旬时候)低点位置(31.12),该位置从理论上讲应该存在一定的“心理支撑”(毕竟前次就是从该位置反弹起来的),随后2天我们继续关注美豆油在该位置的技术表现——是做“双重底”还是“毛刺下破”?这是我们后市关注的焦点(美黄豆连表现疲软已经出现了下破)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,由于内盘恰逢中国传统节日“端午节”,内盘本周停盘2天。今天周三开盘受外围油脂商品下跌影响,早盘跳空低开,短线的回落整理行情延续中,继续场外观望。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,马盘棕榈油本周无停盘,穆斯林斋月开始,受棕榈油需求预期下降不利影响,马盘棕榈油从上周一也出现了冲高回落的下挫行情,本周一周二期价仍继续中阴下跌—–表明马盘棕榈油的短线回落整理行情仍延续中。今天周三盘面恐将仍继续低开,但不建议追空,谨防今日期价低开高走红盘表现。今日晚间马来西亚船运调查机构将公布5月份棕榈油出口数据。

小结:全球油脂类商品前期反弹之后的“冲高回落”整理行情仍在延续中,短线未出现明显的止跌信号—–我们继续短空观点对待。等待逢低多单埋伏进场的朋友暂不可操之过急,继续观察一下后市短线盘面。而激进型想追空操作的朋友也不建议该操作,密切关注一下美盘豆油在前低(4月10日 31.12位置)的表现,若双重底成立才可进场,若出现下破则会出现更低期价,因此时机把握是我们当前主要任务。

[SUMMARY]
• Global edible oils are experiencing a downward correction after a rebound, with no clear signal as to when the decline may end in the short term.
• We maintain a short-term short outlook.

[ACTION]
• Traders who are looking to go long at low prices may refrain from doing so at the moment and observe the short-term performance of the market.
• Aggressive traders are encouraged to stay on the sidelines.
• We shall pay close attention to the low point of US soybean oil.
• The emergence of a double bottom or new lows is key to timing our entry to the market.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock