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Global Markets Analysis – 31 October 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


31.10.2016 周一 短线交易者多单出局后;场外暂时观望

美盘豆油12月合约,上周五个交易日一阳四下挫,虽然在日K线图表上均线系统仍然是多头排列,但期价的下坠回落均线痕迹已经悄悄显示,在上攻动能略有衰竭后,后市短线角度上存在向下回落整理的技术要求,至于回落空间的大小?则成为我们新的关注焦点。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,前期,期价反弹上行到2年多以来的高点后,当前成交量有所萎缩,期价呈现出高位震荡走势(上攻力量衰退;下挫下方有均线支撑),但为了防范风险,我们已经连续几日建议前期多单逢高平仓兑现离场操作,以了结出局的交易者暂时场外观望。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,期价同样到达2年半以来的高位后,出现了高位的横盘状态,上周5个交易日的横盘整理,也在提醒我们谨防期价回抽均线下挫。虽然截止到目前为止,盘面上尚未出现明显的下跌,但我们防范风险的意识一定要紧绷, 仿佛头顶上悬一把宝剑一样,风险意识永远是第一位。

小结:当前美国大豆收割已经进入到最后的尾声阶段(收割率达到93%以上),后期市场炒作的热点将逐步演变到-由供应转为需求上来。我们在中长期看多大观点不变前提下,短线角度我们需要规避一下风险,若后市期价回落下来,我们在下方某条均线位置再接回已经平掉的多单-此为后期短线操作之上策。此时此刻-我们建议手中无仓单的散户朋友暂时场外观望一下,没必要在这种横盘阶段跟它死缠烂打的纠缠在一起,出来稍作休息调整,等我们体力、精力、心态恢复后再与市场搏杀不迟。(同时密切关注美盘豆油的后续表现)

[SUMMARY]
• As harvest of US soybean draws to an end, with 93% in yield, supply-side speculation will be overshadowed by demand-side speculation.
• Despite maintaining our medium and long-term outlook, we shall be cautious about the short-term risks: take long position should the price fall to a level close to the moving average.

[ACTION]
• Traders with no outstanding positions may stay on the sidelines, so as to not commit to the sideway trend.
• In the meantime, pay close attention to the performance of US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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