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Global Markets Analysis – 31 October 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


31.10.2017 周二美盘豆油昨日晚间冲高回落 短线回落整理走势显露苗头

今天是10月份最后一个交易日,美盘豆油12月合约,昨日晚间多空主力厮杀激烈,疯狂争夺关键技术位领地。。。终盘以带上下影线的中阴K线收盘——-表明空头主力高位阻击暂时占得先机,若今日晚间期价再继续下挫,则短线的回落整理行情将拉开序幕。我们继续保持关键技术位酝酿拐点的观点不变(这次酝酿的是短空拐点),至于后市短线期价能下挫多少,有待我们继续观察。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1801主力合约,昨日周一盘面曾一度阳K线红盘补涨,今天周二盘面期价再度阴K线下跌,当前期价处于一个“横盘整理”的尴尬境界,多空主力对后市短线走势看法分歧较大。而我们继续保持逢高短空观点不变,不为单日的盘面涨跌所忽悠。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,这个品种更是令人“皆笑啼非”,我们原本预计前天周一的阴K线为短线反弹终止信号,没成想在昨日期价再度高开,在更高位来了个“黄昏之星”,今天周二盘面,期价又跳空低开低走,令昨日高位追多仓单全部被套,若明日期价能继续下挫——-则昨日周二的十字星将成为教科书般的行情反转教材。 昨日建议的新进空单为明智之举。

小结:美盘豆油在反弹走势尾声阶段多疯狂拉升了1–2天,但昨日的阴K线最终暴漏了马脚,在关键技术位短线空头暂时领先,等待今日晚间市场给出“趋势线假突破”的明确信号。。。好在我们意志坚定没受市场虚假信号干扰。 我们继续保持技术性的逢高空单阻击操作观点不变。 具体操作上:内盘前期反手空单继续持有, 马盘昨日新进空单以及前几日多单出局后的反手空单继续持有,后市短线我们仍以短空观点对待。 待本波期价回落到下方某位置后,我们才考虑逢低平空反手多单低位抄底操作(后话)。 让我们继续关注美盘豆油的后续表现。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil had rebounded and traded higher in the previous session.
• However, it dipped yesterday, prompting the market had appeared a false breakout signals.
• We continue to remain our short outlook as the market is expected to move downward.
• Traders may continue to pay close attention to the movements of the US soybean oil.

[ACTION]
• In China and Malaysia market, traders who are holding short positions may continue to retain those positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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