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Global Markets Analysis – 4 August 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong

8.4周一 美豆油下破前低 内盘 马盘持仓减仓

美盘豆油12月,周五晚间中阴下跌,跌破7月25日低点,该技术位的下破令我们上周五报告中所担心的问题一下紧张起来。从日图表上观察 ,这种行情走势轨迹,令7月29日的反弹高点(反抽到下降通道下轨线37.36位置)再次成为悬念,记得我们当时提到过后市仅有2种短线走势: 1.反抽到下轨线位置受阻然后继续下跌 2.反弹到通道下轨线,收盘站稳37.40-37.50之上反弹延续。当时我个人倾向走第2种,但上周五的下破前几天低点,令短线走第1种行情走势的概率陡增,由于日图表上已经出现第1种行情酝酿轨迹苗头,所以我们操作上要谨慎起来。

大陆内盘豆油1501合约上周五收阴,今天周一早盘受美盘周五下跌影响,跳空低开,前期的反弹行情出现失败的苗头,短线走势有挑战前低7月23日低点可能,该品种前期接盘抢反弹多单全部减仓出局规避风险。(因美盘豆油提前出现走坏迹象) 。

棕榈油方面,上周五内盘和马盘均红K线小幅上涨收盘,但考虑到美豆油上周五晚间的技术走坏迹象出现苗头,后市恐也会受到拖累,今天早盘内盘棕榈油开盘小幅下跌,虽整体仍属于横盘震荡走势,但为避免豆油 和美原油下跌拖累,部分接盘多单适量减仓。

小结:上周五美盘豆油技术破位,7月25日 前低的下破,令短线行情出现反抽 -回落-下跌的节奏迹象。虽然内盘和马盘还未完全跟随到位,但也需要我们谨慎起来,上周五报告中所提前担心的问题 ,不能不让人警惕起来。个人看法是在具体操作上豆油接盘多单全部平仓出局,后市美盘豆油不排除还有一次大的下蹲动作发生。棕榈油上虽然技术上未出现完全走坏,但由于迟迟不出现上行动能,盘面显示上方压力较重。内盘和马盘 前期接盘多单部分平仓,以规避受美盘豆油下跌拖累。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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