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Global Markets Analysis – 4 January 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


04.01.2018周四 昨日马盘毛棕榈油大幅飙升3%左右

美盘油脂商品2018年新年假期过后,已经连续2天阳K线上涨—–美盘豆油3月合约,加上节前最后一个阳K线,已经初步“三颗红小兵”反弹走势,当前期价恢复到原来上升趋势线的上方,我们继续短多观点关注。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约,节后首个交易日率先发动上涨(1月2日),随后追随美盘不断走高,超跌之后的回抽均线反弹走势延续中,我们继续短多思维。

昨日马盘棕榈油基准3月大幅飙涨近三个百分点,创出近期最高单日涨幅—吸引人眼球!昨日周三盘面的大幅上涨,令当前期价已经回到我们最早多单埋伏的位置 , 部分交易者已经解套。 另外: 在期价后期超跌下挫时候—我们曾2次建议空单紧急追空操作,并且日内平仓,再到最后期(1月2号)我们建议多单补仓探薄前期多单持仓成本—通过途中追空锁单 平空单 低位多单补仓等等一系列操作,我们有理由相信,通过这些操作手段,我们散户朋友已经不同程度的规避了风险 (甚至盈利), 马盘棕榈我们继续反弹观点对待。(有小道消息称 马来西亚政府有可能在2018年第一个季度允许零关税进口棕榈 印度尼西亚可能将生物柴油强制掺混比例中的棕榈油提高到20% 但这二则消息未经证实)

小结: 内盘“一马当前”率先启动反弹上涨走势, 马盘“快马加鞭”昨日瞬间报复性大涨, 美盘“策马扬鞭”紧紧追随给予支持—-全球油脂类商品超跌之后的反弹走势进行中,我们继续保持短多观点对待。 具体操作上: 由于马盘毛棕榈油昨日涨幅巨大, 已经非常接近我们的最早多单的持仓成本, 不排除有部分解套盘涌出,我们部分散户朋友可于今天适量老多单逢高减仓操作, 而1月2日建议低位补仓多单可继续持有—油脂商品由于短线涨幅过大,存在日内的回落整理走势, 但这只会短暂的影响到日内的账户盈利水平,还不至于改变短线角度的反弹走势。

[SUMMARY]
• China edible oils rebounded and continued to move upward.
• Malaysia market followed China market to jump higher on Wednesday, which also supported US market to went higher.
• Global edible oils continued its rebounding movement after the overbought condition has occurred in the previous session.
• We remain our short-term long outlook.

[ACTION]
• Retail traders may consider reducing long positions when the prices are high.
• Traders who are holding long positions may be cautions, as the edible oils might have a downward corrections in short-term.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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