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Global Markets Analysis – 4 July 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


7.4 周五 回落行情延续 下跌幅度收窄

美盘豆油12月周一长阴大跌之后,期价继续保持下挫,昨天晚间以十字星收盘,盘面显示下跌幅度逐渐收窄,但仍未出现明显的止跌信号。6月3日和 6月12日 的前低点,目前勉强维持在那一线,是否下破前低成为后市关键。

马来西亚毛棕榈油9月,下跌抵抗性较强,仿佛存在一种看不见的力量在下面托着,期价在尽量靠近原下降趋势线附近,不愿意远离,一种等待随时再上破下降趋势线的感觉。后市技术关注点为6月12日前低。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油和棕榈油1409合约,二品种是本周二跳空下跌的,比美盘豆油晚一天,表明受美盘影响较重,一个大的跳空跌下来之后,期价连续几天小幅波动,期价变化不大,杀跌动能得到一定的释放,但就此就表明下跌结束的结论还为时尚早,后市短线仍以短空观点看待。

小结:全球油脂类商品下跌延续中,其中大陆内盘油脂商品技术形态提前走坏,已经下破前波反弹起点(6月12日)的低点位置,下跌幅度较大。马盘和美盘油脂商品在前一波反弹起点(6月12日)上方运行,抵抗性下跌较为明显。但整体来说, 油脂类商品的下跌回落行情仍延续中,均未见明显止跌技术信号。个人认为在操作上,继续保持逢高短空操作策略模式。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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