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Global Markets Analysis – 4 June 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


04.06.2015 周四 美盘豆油箱体上沿震荡;内盘部分多头短线减仓

美盘豆油7月合约,期价运行在长期横盘整理的上沿部位,(2014年 9月以来的区间上沿)该位置一直以来都是反弹到此就出现下滑的高点位置,因此技术阻挡与心理阻挡都比较严重,后市是否能形成中长线角度的反转行情,仍需要密切关注随后几天短线上的表现。仅从当前来看,美盘豆油仍有突破上行的动能,短线技术未出现走坏迹象。

大陆内盘豆油与棕榈油1509主力合约的情况这2日就略有不同,在美盘豆油是否能突破成功前途不明时候,内盘油脂连续2天期价略有下滑,盘中表现为减仓中阴下行,为多头平仓出局盘口语言。表明内盘在美盘后市不明朗时候,多头主力操作开始趋于谨慎,当前逢高减仓的发生仅是一种心态,纯技术角度尚不能确定大陆内盘反弹结束。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月合约,期价连续快速跳空高开后,日图表均线系统开始多头排列,虽期价也出现小幅回落,但仍维持在5日平均价格之上,也同样未出现明显走坏迹象。盘中也出现部分短多平仓逢高离场盘口语言,但仍不确定反弹结束。

小结:美盘豆油在箱体上沿部位震荡,周图表上60天线存在压力,是否能向上突破是散户朋友需要密切关注的。在美盘情况不明朗前提下,大陆内盘与马盘部分短线多头逢高获利平仓离场,这种心态可以理解,因为毕竟前期每当美盘反弹到此均出现了大幅走低现象的发生。在美盘未出现技术走坏前提下,建议继续以短多观点看待短线走势。观点认为中长线多单乐观持有,短线多单略谨慎心态持有,暂不减仓。目光放在美盘豆油随后几天的短线走势上。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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