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Global Markets Analysis – 5 August 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


8.5 周二 油脂商品短线行情走势不明朗

美盘豆油周五中阴下跌,跌破7月25日低点出现新低,短线走势大有再次跟随中线下降趋势下探态势,奇怪的是周一晚间美盘豆油12月合约又出现中阳上涨K线,阳K线高度未高于周五阴K线高度,未形成吞没K线组合,令短线行情走势出现模糊。考虑到中线角度的下降趋势阴影笼罩,短线再次下蹲走势尚不能完全排除。短线密切关注周二晚间是否形成两阴夹一阳K线组合。

在美盘欲下还上模棱两可短线走势之时,马来西亚毛棕榈油基准10月,依旧我行我素走独立行情,期价呈震荡平台横盘态势,7月23日前低尚未被下破,盘面显示交投清淡,短线无方向感。

大陆内盘油脂商品中,豆油1501合约昨日追随美盘周五豆油下跌跳空低开,形成下破7月23日前低的苗头,今天早盘又高开低走 。棕榈油1501合约追随马盘棕榈油走势,期价横盘平台震荡,短线出现无趋势走势。

小结:美盘豆油上周五下挫前低,大有再次下探寻支撑态势,若今日晚间形成两阴夹一阳走势,仍不能排除再次下蹲走势。内盘和马盘原本有技术反弹要求,但盘面显示上方压力重重,既然上行无动能,那向下的嫌疑就值得我们警惕。由于美盘豆油的模糊走势,令内盘和马盘的油脂类商品短线走势上出现形势不清的状况,为规避风险,昨天已建议部分仓单出局,这种行情走势在风险报酬比上不具有可操作价值,场外观望更稳妥些。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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