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Global Markets Analysis – 5 August 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


05.08.2015 周三 低位寻支撑初见成效 思维上时刻保持警惕

美盘豆油12月,本周一低位的十字星之后,昨日晚间又十字星收盘。美豆油期价在低位震荡整理,多空主力交织在底部低点区域争夺,由于对后市看法上存在严重分歧,市场上谨慎心态明显。从短线技术上观察,我们依然保持在30.00位置美豆油基本调整到位的观点不变,后市存在反弹上行技术要求。

中国大陆现货市场最新数据,2015年8月4日24度棕榈油价格稳定,其中天津港集中报价在4850元/吨。日照港报价4800元/吨。张家港报价4800元/吨。宁波报价4800元/吨,广州港报价4700元/吨。整体报价基本稳定,可适当议价走货,但成交量略显清淡。

大陆内盘油脂商品商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,昨天周二低开高走红盘增仓报收,盘中显示在较低位置有部分多头增仓进场多单。今天周三早盘,期价再次高开,虽然早盘目前涨幅不是很大,但隐约中下方空间被封杀,若后市短线出现长阳上涨并不奇怪。(其中豆油今天表现 ;后市反弹欲望更为强烈)。

马来西亚棕榈油由于季节性增产周期、出口需求放缓、中国大陆油脂库存略有增加、国际原油整体下滑、美盘豆油低位震荡、美元指数震荡上行等等多重利空因素影响,对马盘毛棕榈油短线上整体形成下行压力。昨天马盘毛棕榈油基准10月一度曾中阴补跌,终盘以十字星小阴K线收盘,从盘中低点略有收高。盘中多空争夺,持仓量昨日大增,不排除部分多头低位接盘。虽然短线角度的下挫寻支撑仍在进行中,但盘中任何细小的变化都要引起我们散户朋友的注意。今天建议密切关注马盘毛棕榈油基准10月的日内短线表现。若从长线来说,在第三第四季度厄尔尼诺天气预期加强大背景下,随着时间推移与减产周期的到来以及消费旺季预期 ,长线上棕榈油价格出现上涨仍值得期待。

小结:全球油脂商品短线的下挫寻支撑进行中,盘中隐约出现多头主力低位接盘迹象。建议大家密切关注该动向的后续发展,以把握短线角度的操作轨迹。(短线上建议尽力追求沿期价运行轨迹来操作,长线上是个人对后市发展的预期,二者因操作周期的不同,在具体操作思维上要分别对待。)观点认为短线操作者空单昨日平仓离场后,今天关注盘面若有新的变化,可少量短线多单进场试盘。中长线操作者的前期多单继续持有。同时密切关注美盘低位十字星后的走势指引。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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