Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 5 December 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


05.12.2017周二美盘油脂类商品昨日晚间未支持内盘的率先启动

美盘豆油1月合约,昨日周一晚间中阴下跌,美盘大豆也冲高回落——昨日白天亚洲电子盘的强势特征“昙花一现”,虽然美大豆今天亚洲早盘仍勉强维持在1000整数关之上,但美豆油1月合约的再度期价走低,未能有力支持内盘走势。 从时间周期来分析—–美豆油从11月9日开始的回落整理走势已经为19天了,看来整理的还是不够充分,离费波纳茨数字的(1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34)天还有点误差,不能调动起短线做多的人气,我们原本预计的是13天时候 ,看来要到21天了(还有3天), 这三天美豆油不排除仍有一定的杀跌动能。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,昨日周一上午盘面原本红盘上涨强势表现,期价在追随内盘走高。但在下午4点过后,期价突然冲高回落,终盘阴K线下跌收盘, 好像“先知先觉”一样率先出现了期价走低现象。今天周二早盘,期价再度下滑走低,马盘棕榈油整体处于“右侧横盘抵抗下探”走势, 马币的持续坚挺对马棕榈油带来一定的利空影响(马币令吉特当前维持一年来高点)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约(或1801合约),昨日周一盘面强势上涨,特别是棕榈油品种,在多头快速拉升下,给人一种率先启动“拐点”反弹含义。。。但在未得到美盘豆油昨日晚间的持仓后,今天周二盘面期价再度走弱,最后结果是无功而返。 从内盘油脂品种观察—–内盘豆粕是长阳强力上攻, 内盘豆油是“右侧横盘下跌抵抗”, 内盘棕榈油低位拐点稍微更明显些,我们谨慎观点对待。

小结:美盘豆油昨日晚间中阴下跌,看来还要多下挫整理3天,而内盘油脂商品在未能得到美盘支持下,今天盘面无功而返。马盘毛棕榈油在马币坚挺利空情绪影响下,昨日就率先冲高回落——-全球油脂类商品短线超跌之后的反弹走势并能未完全展开, 看来还需要一定的“下探”走势,去下面寻找更多的人气聚集, 这给本波的短线操作增加了难度——这点要引起我们思想上的警惕。 考虑到我们部分逢低埋伏多单已经进场,在收获尾声的最后尾巴阶段,我们不建议止损出局, 对于后市短线—我们仍抱有一定的“技术反弹”希望,只是选择的进场时机出现了误差,这点也需要作出说明。具体操作上:内盘马盘前期多单继续持有,忍受美盘喋喋不休的下探回落走势,短线角度来说, 下方的空间不会很大(短线之所以迟迟不出现反弹走势只是因为中线角度的杀跌能量未完全释放干净), 总之一句话—–我们对第四季度的走强表现还是存在一定心理预期(特别是内盘传统节日前)。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil settled lower yesterdays night, prompting the market might continue to drop three more days.
• China edible oils failed to move higher, tracking the weakness of US soybean oil.
• Malaysian palm oil opened higher and traded lower yesterday as the ringgit was strengthened.
• Global edible oils had occurred oversold condition, however, the market still failed to rebound and move into the consolidation phases.
• Traders are not recommended to cut loss and liquidate positions as the market is expected to have a technical rebound.

[ACTION]
• In China and Malaysia market, traders may retain long positions as we expect the market move upward.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock