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Global Markets Analysis – 5 January 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


05.01.2015 周一 大陆内盘开盘

今天2015年1月5日周一,大陆内盘期货证券市场开盘。

在元旦假期期间,全球金融市场基本情况是:

1. 美元指数继续强力上行,月线长期图表上在挑战2005年11月高点92.63位置的阻挡效力。

2. 美元强势、外汇市场、欧元、英镑等品种出现重挫。

3. 国际原油市场继续保持中短线的下行态势,其中纽约原油见低点52.03美元/桶,已经非常临近50.00技术支撑位。

4. 美盘豆油3月合约,在假期前短线反弹到32.00-34.00箱体中间位置后,在内盘休息期间,期价又再次滑落到箱体下沿32.00位置,短线上仍反复震荡中。

5. 马来西亚毛棕榈油比中国大陆多一个交易日,内盘假期期间,马盘毛棕榈油基准3月低开高走,整体期价变化不大,仍属于反弹态势行情中。

当前油脂类商品的情况扔和前期相同,特别是心理方面。考虑到美原油走势离技术支撑(长期图表上原上升趋势线)仅仅还存在一小点距离,考验该位置技术支撑可靠性仍在进行中。在美原油考验未明确前,美盘、内盘、马盘油脂商品中豆油与棕榈油仍震荡性等待,从心态上仍有少许犹豫徘徊心态,在油脂商品未同步走势前,该心态可以理解。

周一早盘开盘后,内盘豆油与棕榈油1505合约受美盘假期间重回箱体下沿的下跌影响早盘低开,期价比假期前略有下滑,以2014年12月29日长阳K线高低点作为风向标,密切关注该品种短线走势。

马盘毛棕榈油周一早盘此刻未开盘,考虑到美豆油短线走势的反复,恐马盘毛棕榈油平开后震荡为主。

小结:美原油中短线下挫未停止,美豆油又重回箱体下沿,长线角度的长期大底仍在震荡酝酿中,短线上期价的小幅震荡不可避免。我们长线筑大底观点不变。个人观点认为假期前短线少量多单可继续持有,唯一谨防的是美原油在下挫考验50.00美元时候对植物油各商品被动拖累作用,这是我们当前所最为担心,整体观察,可以瞬间下破,但下方空间应该不会很大,耐心等待下挫受支撑后与多单依然接盘机会的到来。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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