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Global Markets Analysis – 5 October 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2014年10月5日 周日 本周行情回顾

10.3日周五10.4日周六两天系统维护,10月3日周五的报告未及时发出,由于我们的报告略带前瞻性,并且周五油脂商品市场变化不大,所幸不影响大局。

马盘毛棕榈油在10月2日周四盘中,曾出现重挫,令前期短线的反弹行情出现微妙变化,周四的长阴下跌一阴吞多阳,存在K线”吞没”嫌疑,周五时候在长阴右下角收小阳,周四的失地未能完全收复, 最关键的是当前期价运行的部位正是关键技术阻挡位置,该位置的任何风吹草动都要引起我们的注意, 马棕榈油本周走势整体呈现先扬后抑的短线走势,密切关注下周一市场是否继续下挫,若延续短线下跌,可前期反弹走势将出现结束信号苗头。

美盘豆油依然我行我素,一周以来期价变化不大,整体呈阴阳K线横盘短线整理,对油脂类商品短线方向指引意义不大,中线来说,下探寻大底的过程延续中。

美盘原油市场,近期出现重挫,期价跌幅较大,这也是严重影响马盘毛棕榈油出现下跌的主要原因,由于毛棕榈油生物燃油替代作用与原油价格的相关联性较高,我们一定要关注国际原油市场出现的下跌对马棕榈油的负面影响。此外还需关注马来西亚令吉特,马币本周三触及6个月来低点后出现反弹,马币的走强对马棕榈油的需求减弱作用不可小视。这点也需我们散户朋友引起警惕。

大陆内盘期货市场 证券市场全部停盘休假,对油脂商品市场的影响忽略不计。

综述:本周(9月29日至10月3日)油脂类商品市场,美原油市场出现暴跌,马盘毛棕榈油本周先扬后抑,在周四时候也出现重挫,短线角度出现微妙走势苗头,严防出现向反弹结束演绎的走势,若下周不能站上60天线收复周四的阴K线下跌,前期反弹多单可做平仓了结,宁可先落袋为安,也决不能让利润严重缩水。下周密切关注美原油市场对马棕榈油的负面影响程度。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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