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Global Markets Analysis – 5 September 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


9.5 周五 传闻马来西亚棕榈油出口关税9和10月将取消

9月4日和5日传闻马来西亚棕榈油出口关税将取消2个月,不再对9月10月出口毛棕榈油船货征税,稍早时候9月份税率定为4.5%。此消息一出直接表明马来西亚政府有关部门支持马盘毛棕榈油上涨,(关税取消4.5%至少支持价格上涨4.5%才达到当前的平衡)。这只是表明层面的理解,其实马政府更深的含义是希望此消息来刺激大马毛棕榈油的出口,以降低未来马毛棕榈油的总库存量,同时也间接遏制8月份以来毛棕榈油的猛烈下跌势头,此政策起到了一石二鸟的良好效应。

抛开基本面消息,单从技术层面来说,我们前几日报告中就曾提到过,马盘毛棕榈油基准11月出现“三个红小兵斗一阴”的情况,并且指出上周五8月29日阴K线高点位是1984, 1984是阻挡还是被突破成为后市的关键,在第2颗红小兵时候(9月3日)期价曾挑战过1984,盘中见到了1986价格,在第3颗K线时候,当1984被向上突破后,期价上涨就出现了加速迹象,9月4日周四于2030令吉红盘报收,三阳吞一阴,短线的反弹行情成立, 日图表上的拐点走势出现苗头(9月2日的当天是看不出来的,拐点的出现只能2、3天后翻回头去看才能清晰),当前来说马盘毛棕榈油受利多基本面消息刺激率先出现我们预期中的盘中反弹行情,此行情运行中。

美盘豆油12月依旧短线走势模糊,期价小幅波动低位震荡,盘中未见明显短线方向性指引,依然受日图表均线压制积重难返。

马盘取消关税,刺激出口和降低库存,这对马盘本身形成利多期价3谈来出现上涨,但对大陆内盘油脂类商品来说并不见得是什么利好消息,因中国大陆是棕榈油需求进口国,更多的进口量预期实在是对内盘油脂商品期价上涨起不到多大的提振作用,内盘豆油和棕榈油近几天来期价呈十字星小幅波动,盘面无起色,甚至连豆油也失去了前期反弹欲望。

小结:美盘和内盘油脂商品窄幅波动,盘中观望气氛依旧较浓,短线行情走势无新意。 马盘毛棕榈油受马政府基本面政策利多影响出现反弹行情走势苗头,验证了我们前几日提到的盘面独立性行情走势的原因,后市马盘走势尚需美盘和内盘的支持。个人观点是内盘油脂商品继续场外观望,盘面无操作意义。马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,可少量多单盘中低点整理时候逢低跟进,1984点为风向标,期价站其上为反弹行情延续,期价跌回之下为反弹失败。设置此点为多单技术止损位,在三阳吞一阴短线拐点出现后,后市焦点转为密切关注美盘和内盘的动向。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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