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Global Markets Analysis – 6 August 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


8.6 周三 下破前低 反手短空操作

每年这个时段总是利空消息最多的时候,美盘大豆优良率高起,预测产单能达到46蒲式耳/英亩以上。棕榈油产量增加、出口减少、期末库存预测增加到190-200万吨和厄尔尼诺现象迟迟未现。油脂类商品仍笼罩在基本面利空消息之下。

从技术面来说,美盘豆油12月,昨日晚间果然形成两阴夹一阳K线组合,表明短线仍存在下行走势,仍不排除再次下蹲可能。当前短线周期的走势被中线周期的下降趋势所覆盖,市场行情表现依旧非常疲软。

大陆内盘和马盘棕榈油仍然保持平台横盘震荡走势,虽然盘中多头苦苦护盘,但在中线下降趋势大形势下,多头的努力颇显力不从心,后市短线角度的下破前低的概率大增。

小结:前期我们曾说过,本波下降趋势下的下跌是为中长线角度的上涨做铺垫,震荡下探筑中长期大底观点我们仍然未变。仅仅是短线角度的反弹要求被市场整体忽略,市场行情更多的表现为震荡下探寻大底过程,从盘面观察,这个筑大底过程在时间上显得更为漫长。个人看法是在具体操作上,前期接盘多单失败后,出局场外观望,等待第二次的技术下蹲动作(这次下探后,市场将真正发起多头总攻)。短线角度激进操作者在前低被下破后可短线反手空单进场,日内短线操作,后市下方仍有部分下跌空间。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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