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Global Markets Analysis – 6 December 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


06.12.2017周三美盘豆油震荡下探内盘马盘抵抗性追随

美盘豆油1月合约,昨日周二晚间小阴K线下跌,虽然有一点下影线,但下影线的长度不够(下方多头买盘不积极),表明美盘豆油仍在下挫整理中。 美盘大豆昨日晚间却是中阳上涨(继续在1000美分以上运行),美盘油脂商品本身出现短线走势分化,这令我们在报告研判上出现难度。一上一下中, 我们建议用“平均”眼光看待,既不盲目乐观看涨,也不悲观情绪看跌, 耐心等待同步化。

大陆内盘油脂商品中,内盘豆粕1805主力合约近两日长阳飙涨,上攻走势明显。 但豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约昨日周二盘中,阴K线下跌走势,不排除部分市场主力存在多粕空油的跨品种套利操作行为。今天周三盘面,内盘油脂在昨日阴K线右侧小阳K线表现–多头轻微的抵抗动作延续中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,昨日阴K线带下影,今天十字星波动–马盘毛棕榈油也出现一定多头抵抗动作,虽然动作不是很大,但我们也不再盲目看低多少。

小结:美盘豆油依然震荡性下挫走势,虽然跌幅不是很大,但是连续的阴K线却完全影响到了内盘 马盘油脂类商品上多头主力的做多热情,在美豆油不出现强烈反攻前,内盘 马盘油脂商品恐将仍延续抵抗性的追随动作, 我们操作上以不变应万变–继续多单持有,冷眼旁观美盘豆油的表现,当前油脂类商品下方空间有限,没必要过于担忧, 耐心等待市场新的变化。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil continued to move downward with the change is not large, but it already affected China and Malaysia edible oils to move downward.
• If US soybean oil still continue to move southward, China and Malaysia edible oils might be tracking on the weakness of US soybean oils.
• We remain our long outlook as the downtrend distance for current edible oils is limited.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long positions and pay close attention to the movement of US soybean oils.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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