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Global Markets Analysis – 6 July 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


7.6 周日 本周短线回顾与中长线展望 (30.06.2014 – 04.07.2014)

6月30日到7月4日当周,受美国农业部报告利空消息影响,美盘油脂类商品暴跌,特别是6月30日周一当天,美豆油长阴K线下跌收盘,带动大陆内盘油脂类商品7月1日周二, 大幅度跳空低开低走,一举跌破6月12日前低(反弹的起点),前低下破,表明前期短线的技术反弹行情结束,后市短线角度来说转为看空观点对待。

美盘原油市场,在6月9日时候突破3月3日、 4月14日和5月23日的三高点连线的技术压制后(104.50左右),期价发生震荡上行,于6月13日创出新高107.68,随后连续高位横盘震荡多日,在本周5个交易日内出现期价滑落,由于日图表上,美原油连呈现的是均线多头排列状态,期价回落过程中,下方的60天线将起到一定的左右支撑。

马盘毛棕榈油9月,本周一跳空低开,受美盘豆油和美盘原油连的下跌影响反应稍弱,技术形态上是向上突破,日图表上的下降趋势线失败后,本周短线走势呈现二阴三阳走势,盘中抵抗性较为明显,但在均线空头排列情况下,后市的回落整理走势尚未完全结束。

综述:本周全球油脂类商品出现下跌,虽美盘豆油连续两日以十字星收盘,但短线的下跌回落走势尚未完结,短线观点仍以震荡下跌看待,中长线观点仍以大区间震荡横盘回落寻大底观点看待。个人观点是在操作上短线继续延续本周四和周五的报告观点操作,逢高空,逢急跌平空,待盘中高点再空的滚动式短线操作模式。中长线角度的逢低接盘仓单平仓后观望,待奔波短线下跌结束后,再寻技术支撑位逢低买入接盘,当前中长线角度操作者场外观望。待盘面出现新的接盘技术信号后,再去底位接盘。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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