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Global Markets Analysis – 6 November 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


06.11.2014 周四 美盘与内盘较弱;马盘稍强 略有分化

美元利好上行,美原油下破80.00整数关后走低,这对全球商品市场带来不小冲击,特别是油脂与化工类商品的影响更大一些。

技术观察美原油,在下破80.00整数关后,见新低75.84收下影线,昨日晚间中阳红盘上涨,前期的中线下行是否在75.84受到短线支撑尚待关注。若今晚能中阳后继续上涨,则短线才会出现下跌企稳。

美盘豆油与大陆内盘油脂近2日下挫力度较大,期价出现反弹后的暴跌,该走势对短线多头心理冲击较大,短线上出现走坏苗头,表明长线角度的震荡筑大底还在进行中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月走势上与美盘、大陆内盘走势略有不同,期价在前期反弹走高基础上,受国际原油下跌影响的回落幅度与力度均较小,期价受下方均线支撑,技术观察属于快速反弹之后的正常回落整理,该现象属于前期多头获利盘的兑现造成。

小结:美原油的下跌对油脂商品影响巨大,美盘与大陆内盘的前期反弹受到巨大阻力而出现大跌,多头止损出局迹象较为明显。个人觉得大陆内盘多单平仓了结出局。马盘回落幅度尚在心理承受范围内,期价短暂受10日均线支撑,考虑到受外围美盘与内盘油脂商品回落影响,马盘前期接盘多单可在设置好止盈前提下继续谨慎持有。个人觉得同时密切观察美原油是否下寻到支撑位。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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