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Global Markets Analysis – 7 August 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


8.7 周四 鸡肋行情 场外观望

美盘原油连市场近期出现连续下跌,从6月25日前后从高位开始滑落,技术图表呈下跌-反弹-再下跌3浪轨迹下行,目前这种走势延续中(第3浪长度略短于第一浪长度,差一小截,说明还需一小段运行时间)。美盘豆油也是从该时间段出现的下挫,但缺少了其中的反弹,并且下跌清晰度和下跌的幅度远没有美原油走的标准而凌厉。美豆油近期几日更多表现为横盘震荡,以时间换空间迹象在盘中隐隐可见。

大陆内盘和马盘油脂类商品在连续下跌多日之后(也是从6月25日前后出现的下跌),近几日盘中小幅度窄区间震荡,成交萎靡而清淡,期价更多呈现小的阴阳横盘K线,可操作价值逐步变小,盘中走势无新意,行情走势令人昏昏欲睡,黎明前的黑暗正是此阶段的鲜明写照。

小结:油脂类商品近期的表现真是让人无话可说之感,盘中表现为下跌无空间,反弹无动能,窄区间横盘无序震荡表现明显。思路上我们不受模糊盘面走势干扰,继续保持短线看空,中线看跌,中长线看下跌筑底之后酝酿后期大涨的观点不变。从盘面观察,油脂类商品下方还有些许下跌空间,但这个空间已然不大,这次下探之后下方接盘多单的热情必将被激发出来。个人看法是在具体操作上,我们不建议再大手笔做空,但大手笔做多也稍微略早,在这最艰难时刻,我们依然主张场外观望,更合时宜。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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