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Global Markets Analysis – 7 October 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


07.10.2014 周二 美盘大豆和豆油联袂上涨

美国农业部周一发布报告:截止10月5日当周,美国大豆落叶率为83%,前一周为69%,5年均值为84%。当周美国大豆收割率为20%,前一周为10%,5年均值为35%。另外报告显示,上周美国出口检验大豆974,341万吨,远高于预估的50 – 65万吨。分析报告可以看出 – 近期美国的暴雨对美大豆的收割延迟,后期的持续降雨恐对收割存在不利影响。 同时从出口检验报告可以看出,近期美大豆出口有所改善。

受美国农业部周一报告利多影响,美盘大豆和豆油联袂出现上涨,美黄豆连期价首次站上10日均线的技术阻挡。美豆油12月合约涨幅大于美大豆,呈中阳上涨,原横盘小区间被向上突破,短线上出现触底反弹走势,本周密切关注9月中旬前高是否被突破。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,受外围市场油脂商品走高影响,今天早盘跳空高开,期价再次站上60天线上方,日图表60天位置多空双方的争夺仍然比较激烈,后市关注上周四的失地是否被收回。

大陆内盘明天国庆假期结束即将开盘,预计明天开盘上涨。

小结:美盘油脂商品周一晚间出现触底反弹短线走势,本周后市走势能否连贯成为短线角度的关键。马盘受美盘油脂上涨影响,今天早盘跳空高开,表明60天线关键技术位仍在争夺中。若上周四失地被收复则继续以反弹观点看待。个人看法是:已减仓的前期反弹多单,既然已经落袋为安就不必后悔,可场外观望。若上周四失地被收复可多单接回。未完全减仓干净的剩余多单可继续谨慎持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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