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Global Markets Analysis – 7 September 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


07.09.2015 周一 均线空头排列下的油脂商品;短线反弹走势力度较弱

美国方面,在良好天气以及预期产量增加的情绪影响下,美盘黄豆连继续承压走低,技术上观察美大豆仍有下挫可能。美盘豆油12月合约,上周5个交易日,短线走势未能延续8月27日至28日的反弹走势,而是追随美豆下挫,若美豆油期价继续下滑,则不排除再次短线走低可能。今天周一,是美国劳动节休假一天,关注周二开盘后的具体表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,在假期过后今天开盘,受美盘假期期价的期价下滑影响,今天周一早盘跳空低开低走,虽然现在判断内盘短线的反弹存在失败的可能为时尚早,但也要引起我们的警惕,关注美盘新的走势动向。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,从8月底以来反弹上行走势表现最为明显的品种,短线走势上远强于美盘与内盘。截止到上周五依然保持短线的反弹态势,今天周一虽然小阴波动,但反弹结束迹象仍不明显,但考虑到油脂类商品的联动性,马盘毛棕榈油也要时刻保持谨慎。

小结:从8月底左右,在油脂商品快速下探之后,短线上有一个触底后的反弹上行技术预期。但在大陆内盘这几天假期内,美盘豆油未明确给出反弹指引,反而期价追随美豆下跌,考虑到均线系统空头排列之下的反弹往往容易夭折的概率,不排除美豆油再次下探确认底部的短线技术要求,因此个人建议在内盘与马盘油脂商品要保持谨慎态度,(虽然未明确已经发生;但首先思维上:若后市稍有风吹草动先暂时短线多单离场,待二次下探结束后再多单接回,以规避短线角度的不必要风险。)个人观点认为中长线多单暂时持有,短线多单保持警惕,若美盘豆油明日继续下挫,则考虑短线多单首先先平仓离场以规避短线角度风险。建议本次操作以美盘豆油周二与周三的走势为短线风向标,当前仅仅在思维角度提前做出提醒。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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