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Global Markets Analysis – 8 August 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


8.8 周五 多空主力均趋于谨慎 散户观望

美盘豆油一阴一阳K线继续往右侧横盘,虽7月25日的前低下破后,但盘面并未出现技术上下跌,仅毛刺下穿前低。当前基本面消息匮乏,从6月25日下跌以来,前期的利空基本面已经被消化,在无新热点基本面消息情况下,多空操作均处于谨慎,期价整体变化不大,技术上横盘震荡整理,更多的处于以时间换空间等待基本面与技术面新的变化过程中。

大陆内盘油脂类商品中,仅有豆粕1501合约,在前期7月23日出现底点之后,展开了一波反弹行情,目前该品种反弹延续中。内盘豆油和棕榈油前低也是7月23日,其中豆油略微反弹些许,而棕榈油反弹无动能。内盘油脂商品即不上攻也不下破7月23日前低, 横盘状态下的操作难度变大,无实质性操作意义。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,在8月5日下破7月23日的低点,8月6日在下破之后却未明显走出下跌行情,下方有一定的接盘,随后几天呈小幅震荡走势,短线走势出现技术模糊状态,整体来说马盘毛棕榈油呈现下跌之后的短线右侧横盘走势,短线无操作价值。

小结:油脂类商品整体仍处于下跌之后的横盘平台窄区间震荡状态,上下的动能均不足,多空主力交易谨慎,期价呈短线无序小幅度波动,以时间的推移为代价等待基本面和技术面的新变化。对于此种无意义震荡行情,最佳的操作策略仍为场外观望,不趟这浑水为宜,耐心等待更好的出手机会。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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