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Global Markets Analysis – 8 January 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong



大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约,短线走势与美盘豆油相似,也存在短线上涨之后的停顿现象,期价在上方40天均线位置出现徘徊震荡整理,期价在修复超买的分时图。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,短线走势下方有短期均线支撑,上方有长期均线阻挡——马盘棕榈油期价今天周一盘面也出现回落整理现象,马盘棕榈油在2600–2610一线果然出现一定技术压力(前期11月底时候的成交密集区位置),让我们继续关注在该位置的市场表现。 另外马来西亚政府关于取消棕榈油出口关税的传闻得到证实,从今天起三个月内取消出口关税,此举有利于马来西亚棕榈油出口竞争力,这对印度跟中国买家而言形成中期利好支持。

小结:全球油脂商品短线反弹上行之后,期价短暂停顿整理,从整理的幅度与技术图表上观察——-尚未出现令反弹结束迹象,因此上我们继续短多观点对待。 具体操作上: 稳健型交易者前期多单继续持有,等待逢高减仓机会的把握, 略激进型散户朋友可部分多单减持,然后再逢低多单补回(滚动操作一下), 但短线操作手法不敏感 不熟练的交易者不建议此操作。

• After global edible oils rebounded, the market are having a downward correction.
• The reversal signals still haven’t occurred in the market, hence, we remain our short-term long outlook.

• Defensive traders may retain long positions and may consider reducing long positions when the prices are high.
• Aggressive traders may reduce long positions and initiate long positions again when the prices are low, however, traders who are not familiar the market are not recommended to do so.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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