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Global Markets Analysis – 8 October 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


08.10.2015 周四 内盘油脂多单持有;马盘棕榈短线多单可适量减仓

美国大豆最新收割数据达到42%,收获面积近半。美国当前大豆现货价格走强支撑美盘大豆走高已经连续3日红盘上涨。美盘豆油12月合约,期价涨幅明显,当前期货价格已经来到日图表上60天均线位置,该位置的技术阻挡是否被击破是后市短线走势的关键,未来几天将会给出明确答案。美国政府将公布月度供需报告(明天周五时分公布),部分投资人士预测,美大豆产量预计下调,2015/2016年度总库存也将下调,若该预期能够实现,恐将对美盘油脂商品的反弹上行而形成短线支撑。(密切关注明天的报告数据)。

国际原油价格在中国国庆假期期间走强,其中纽约原油连10月6日周二盘中红盘长阳上涨,周三时候期价又触及到49.70美元,几乎临近50美元关口,短线观察美盘原油,期价已经上破60天均线的阻挡,后市仍存在反弹上行空间。

大陆内盘国庆7天长假停盘,今天是假期过后首个交易日,考虑到全球股票市场以及油脂商品市场在假期中均有不同程度走高,今天内盘开盘后,证券市场与期货市场恐都将出现补涨机会。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,前期该商品是反弹上行幅度最大的品种,从2000令吉下方以3浪结构直接反弹到2460一线,(目前3浪已经基本到达我们前期预估的位置),10月6日马盘毛棕榈油出现冲高回落走势,10月7日周三又继续中阴走低,盘面显示存在多头获利回吐现象,毕竟由于前期涨幅过大,短线多头获利盘丰厚。建议密切关注今天马盘的走势,若能红盘部分收复失地可多单继续持有,若盘中仍继续走弱不能回复前期强势可部分多单适量逢高减仓,马盘毛棕榈油12月,存在短线回调走势的可能。毕竟该品种一颗大旗独立行情已经走了很久,短线回落也属于正常。

小结:油脂类商品短线普遍出现走高,美盘豆油短线的反弹上行延续中,基本符合我们节前的预期。大陆内盘油脂商品多单继续持有。马盘毛棕榈油由于前期涨幅过大,稍有风吹草动获利盘便会涌出,建议密切关注该品种,该品种后市短线恐将存在与其它油脂商品短线走势不同步现象,(可以考虑马盘棕榈今天适当逢高短线多单减仓,待调整回落结束后中长线多单再接回)。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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