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Global Markets Analysis – 9 January 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


09.01.2018周二短线交易者时刻注意多单逢高减仓操作的时机把握

美盘豆油3月合约短线反弹上行触及到上方60天均线后,短暂出现一定压力,期价出现了暂时停顿迹象,昨日晚间的阴K线下跌,期价又回落到下方原来的上升趋势线支撑位置,美豆油短线走势出现主力心理犹豫徘徊心态,但仍不能就此表明短线的反弹已经结束,仅仅是提醒我们部分多单可以考虑适当减减仓了。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,昨日周一盘面出现我们所预料的小幅停顿整理走势,今天周二盘面期价又继续跳空高开,期价的上涨幅度得到一定的弥补,当美盘豆油出现模糊走势时候——大陆内盘油脂商品往往就会出现人心不稳现象,这我们也早已司空见惯了。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,短线角度的低位“拐点反弹”走势最为明显,虽然从时间周期上比我们所预期的延迟了一段时间,但技术走势却未发生明显变化。马盘棕榈昨日周一盘面“先抑后扬”,在全天基本走弱情况下,在下午盘面的最后一小时,期价突然拔高,终盘长阳K线报收于2627令吉特。今天周二上午盘面期价又十字星红盘表现在2630一线。从技术分析上来说—–从2017年10月30日的最高点2877 到超跌下挫至2017年12月22日的最低点2417,一共下挫了460令吉特,通过计算可以知道百分之五十位置就是 230令吉特 2417+230=2647令吉特一线——-也就是说,本波反弹修复前期下挫的百分之五十位置就在2647一线,今日的最高价2635已经离这个位置不远。

小结:全球油脂类商品反弹上行,修复前期严重超跌走势工作进行中,期中马盘棕榈油表现最优——基本反抽到50%位置一线(我们通常在50%到0.618黄金分割点位置都要趋于谨慎一线)。鉴于美豆油走势不稳定性较为严重,我们一颗红心二手准备。具体操作上: 前期低位补仓多单可继续持有,但稍高位置更早时间进去的多单可考虑适量逢高减仓,这样操作首先会把心态调整到一个“平静水平”上来(再涨?我们有低位多单在手,不涨了?我们高位被套多单已经平仓离场),而不至于带着心理压力盯盘市场,因此部分散户朋友可执行此操作。后市焦点继续关注反弹高度在何处?万一后市略有风吹草动我们会第一时间建议多单止盈出局。

[SUMMARY]
• Rebound of global edible oils resumes after sharp decline; Malaysia palm oil outperforms.
• Due to high uncertainty of US soybean oil, we shall exercise caution.

[ACTION]
• Traders who went long at low price may retain positions, while those who entered at higher price may reduce positions to avoid losses.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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