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Global Markets Analysis – 9 July 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


7.9 周三 油脂商品下跌加速

7月8日晚间美盘豆油12月,中阴下跌收盘,跌破6月12日和6月3日的前低,期价38.00一线被下破,技术形态走坏,短线的双底形态已经不存在。从波段角度来说,前低跌破,后市就仍需要继续下跌一小段时间,并且面临考验2014年1月31日时候的低点37.72位置,正所谓不破不立,技术测算,美豆油的后市强支撑在37.60—37.70左右,能否支撑得住成为后市关键。 随后几天密切关注更大周期上的前低37.72位置的市场表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品,周三早盘大连豆油主力1501合约,继续保持跳空急跌式下探,短线的下跌行情延续中。棕榈油1501合约早盘下跌幅度较小,短线呈现7月1日(美农业部报告利空)下跌后的横盘抵抗状态。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,周三早盘受昨晚美豆油技术走坏影响跳空低开,勉强维持在前低6月12日2361点之上,该品种虽有抵抗性下跌整理盘口语言多日,但仍不排除瞬间快速下破前低走势的可能。

小结:全球油脂商品继续保持短线上的下跌行情,日图表上的技术支撑岌岌可危。后市短线继续保持看空观点。个人看法在具体操作上,逢高短空操作模式继续保持,短线出现下跌加速迹象,未来几天待新低出现后,空单随时准备逢低平仓了结。油脂后市走势将运行急跌—–下探—–赶底—–反弹的走势。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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