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Global Markets Analysis – 9 October 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


09.10.2015 周五 油脂类商品三地走势出现分化;建议区别对待

美盘原油市场继续保持反弹上行走势,当前期价已经位于50美元/桶以上,昨日晚间的两阴夹一阳走势,表明短线角度的美盘原油仍有向上的反弹空间。

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日晚间微跌走低,在美国农业部报告未出炉前(今日晚间)期价仍在日图表上60天位置徘徊,是上破?是阻挡?等待今天晚间报告数据对其影响,美盘豆油保持谨慎态度对待。

昨日是国庆假期后首个交易日,昨日股票市场普遍高开补涨基本符合我们预期。 大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,昨天早盘同样高开,其中豆油1601高开低走中阴收盘。今天周五早盘,豆油1601低开高走中阳收盘,期价已经站上60天均线,昨日失地被收复。棕榈油1601今天周五也以带下影线的小阳收盘,表明大陆内盘油脂商品短线的反弹上行行情延续中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,从10月6日从高位冲高回落后,短线的下挫整理走势明显,截止到今天周五,已经是连续4天阴K快速下跌,期价在多头获利减仓盘与空头打压盘双重力量下重心有所下移,当前技术观察,该品种由于前期反弹幅度较大,当前回落行情延续中,后市仍存一定的回落空间。下周一马来西亚棕榈油局(MPOB)将公布9月份棕榈油产量、出口量以及库存总量。有分析师预测9月份马来西亚棕榈油产量与库存数据将创纪录的高峰值,这对当前马盘毛棕榈油12月合约继续承压,马盘棕榈油的冲高回落短线行情延续中。

小结:美盘豆油在报告出炉前走势暂受60天均线阻挡,大陆内盘油脂短线保持反弹态势,马盘棕榈油冲高回落行情延续中。三地品种短线走势又开始出现不同步现象。个人建议在操作上保持前几日的观点:美盘谨慎看短多,内盘多单继续持有,马盘多单减仓后;暂时场外观望。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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