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Global Markets Analysis – 9 October 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


09.10.17周一大陆内盘长假期过后迎来首个交易日

在国内两节假期停盘期间,外围周边油脂商品市场短线走势上经历了一个“先抑后扬”过程,其中美豆油12月合约,在10月2日 10月3日尚在低位运行(创短线下挫整理的新低),随后在低位多头买盘介入下,期价有所走高(形成了低位短线上的“小拐点”走势),截止到今天10月9日,亚洲电子盘期价红盘 表现,美盘豆油短线上存在超跌之后的反弹修复技术要求。进入10月份,美国新豆与中国大豆将全面进入收割期,庞大的新豆上市压力恐将影响一段时间,因此上中线角度我们仍需谨慎,谨防后市期价再度的下滑。一年当中,农产品往往在收获季节时候—-是价格最低时候,在其他时间期价应该高于该收获价格,因此上我们从更长周期角度上应该逐步看高一线。我刚才这段话,是从三个周期层面论述的(短线 中线 中长线),希望散户朋友能读懂其中含义,从研判分析角度上我们是从长周期到短周期来“俯视性”的研判(从大到小),但从交易操作角度我们是从小周期来执行的(从小到大),这点也希望散户朋友能明白,因此上短线交易是最能直接体现我们当前此刻账户盈亏的主要指标。

大陆内盘油脂商品,豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,在经过10天左右停盘空档期之后,今天周一首度开盘交易,受内盘假期期间外围市场期价上涨影响,今日内盘油脂商品跳空高开“补涨”,完全证明我们在假期前就提前进行的空单平仓兑现了结的正确性。今天内盘散户朋友可少量多单反手进场交易,在后市短线角度来说,期价存在超跌之后的技术反弹要求。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,在上周短线走势上也存在一个先抑后扬的“小拐点”走势,我们曾在内盘假期期间提醒过马盘散户朋友,并且曾建议逢低多单进场试盘交易,今天马盘棕榈油小幅跳空高开,我们新进多单谨慎持有。

小结:对短线角度来说——全球油脂类商品出现超跌之后的技术反弹走势要求,我们短线角度观点最新定义为 短多思维,暂时以一种超跌之后的修复性反弹观点对待。具体操作上:内盘可今日反手新多进场,马盘前2日新进多单谨慎持有,后市我们谨慎观点的看高一线。另外,在本周美国农业部(USDA)将公布10月份供需报告,而马来西亚棕榈油局也将在本周公布9月份棕榈油产量,出口以及库存数据,两大重要报告的出炉恐将会影响短线期价走势的变化,让我们密切关注最新基本面情况对短线走势的影响程度,届时我们会第一时间做出操作上的应对。

[SUMMARY]
• In the short-term, the steep decline of global edible oils sets the stage for a technical rebound.
• We hold a short-term long outlook: a rebound correction following the plunge.
• Our focus shifts to the upcoming USDA October production data, as well as MPOB’s October production, export and inventory figures, which may have significant impact on markets in the short-term.

[ACTION]
• Traders in China markets may initiate long positions.
• Traders in Malaysia market may retain long positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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