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Global Markets Analysis – 9 September 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


9.9 周二 油脂反弹走势举步维艰

进入到9月份,美国大豆种植区已经出现局部的零星收割,市场仍处于大豆产量以及天气状况的炒作中,美盘整体基本面利空情绪依然较浓,昨晚由于对大豆主产区霜冻影响担忧的减缓,美大豆再次出现下跌。美豆油周一上午亚洲盘的红盘在美盘夜晚的交易时间再度被封杀,在中线下降趋势下的任何技术性反弹苗头都遭到空头的猛烈阻挡,此波空头趋势下的下行行情确实令人印象深刻,至今美盘豆油12月合约期价仍未寻找到明确的底部支撑位。

马盘毛棕榈油在9月和 10月这2个月出口关税降到0后,期价在政策利好刺激以及短线技术反弹要求下,短线上基准11月期价出现走高迹象,但当期价反弹到5%后,(降低的关税为4.5%)今天周二盘中期价的上行出现短暂停顿,利多消息被消化中。

大陆内盘油脂商品未能跟随马盘棕榈油走高,整体仍维持在前期的横向横盘区间内,今天受美盘豆油下跌影响,盘中出现阴K下跌,期价受阻于20天线压制明显,其中内盘豆油1501合约盘中再次出现下行态势,后市密切关注美盘的动向。

小结:本周油脂类商品有重要报告即将公布,公布前市场操作谨慎,受利空预期情绪影响周二盘中油脂商品均出现不同程度的下跌。明天周三马盘毛棕榈油局将公布8月棕榈油产量以及库存情况。本周稍晚时候(周五)美国农业部也将公布报告。在基本面消息不明朗前,我们内盘操作上继续保持观望。马盘操作上原接盘多单可适当减仓。当前市场的反弹行情走势较弱,反弹力度不强,今天盘中对美盘豆油出现新低的担忧加剧。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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