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Global Markets Analysis – 9 September 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


09.09.2015 中国积极的财政政策点燃全球股市以及大宗商品做多热情

昨日9月8号中国财政部周二发布《财政支持稳增长的政策措施》,称将实施更有力度的财政政策,增支减税,中国股市昨日今日大涨。同时带动全球证券市场也不同程度大涨,其中道琼斯工业平均指数上涨390.30,涨幅2.42%,纳斯达克综合指数收涨128.00点,涨幅2.73%,标普500涨48.19,涨幅2.51%。

在中国宽松良好预期影响下,全球大宗商品昨日也出现不同程度上涨,其中伦敦铜昨日暴涨4.23%,日本橡胶与纽约原油也有不同程度上涨。特别是今天大陆内盘期货市场周三盘面上,集体红盘收涨,市场做多热情再度被点燃,做多人气有所凝聚。

美盘黄豆连昨日周二晚间受全球大宗商品不同程度上涨影响,也出现小阳上涨。美豆油12月也合约追随性红盘报收,结束了上周连续5连阴的疲软状况。个人昨日报告中曾特别提到-美大豆与美豆油只有在周二周三红盘上涨才能支持内盘与马盘油脂商品的反弹延续,昨日晚间美豆油的红盘小阳上涨显得尤为重要。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,今天周三早盘跳空高开,期价小幅走高,虽然反弹力度依然不够明显,但在多头主力的短线增仓护盘情况下,期价的短线下滑略微被遏制。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,我们前几日就说过,这是油脂商品中本波短线反弹上行表现最好的一个品种,从8月底以来已经连续10连阳红盘反弹上行,昨日周二盘中虽有冲高回落小阴走势,但在尾盘时候仍顽强中阳红盘报收,今天周三早盘继续高开高走,期价重心持续抬高,当前期价已经临近上方60天均线位置,建议后市密切关注在该关键技术阻挡位的表现。

小结:全球商品市场做多人气再度被中国积极的财政政策点燃,期货市场大宗商品期价普遍上涨,在高涨的做多人气影响下,油脂类商品也被带动,昨日晚间美盘豆油开盘后终于在关键时刻红盘上涨报收,这给予了内盘与马盘一定的支持,若美盘豆油今日晚间能继续红盘上涨,则内盘与马盘的反弹上行将会延续。个人观点认为中长线多单继续持有。短线多单要时刻密切关注的上方反弹空间,由于三地品种上的反弹上行力度有所不同,因此短线操作者一定要保持谨慎态度。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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