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Global Vegoils Analysis – 1 Nov 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周三晚间未能延续周二的小阳K线上涨,仅仅是在右上角做了个小阳十字星(盘中曾出现反身欲望 但未成功)——-美豆油前期下破60天均线后连续的阴K线下跌多日之后,两根并列的小阳K线的出现,表明期价下跌力度开始减弱, 当杀跌动能衰竭时候也就是期价反弹要求强烈的时候,我们在继续保持谨慎的短空思维前提下,也要时刻警惕盘面的变盘信号。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,短线下挫态势延续中,但下挫幅度在逐步收窄, 盘面为谨慎的小碎步往下挪动,根根下影线的出现也表明空头主力不敢肆意妄为打压, 逢低减持空单仍为我们主要操作思维。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,本周一的一根瞬间吞没前阴的长阳K线又被随后的3天小阴K线给吞回,长阳K线无功而返,马盘棕榈油短线下挫走势仍进行中———–但,遇盘中急跌时候 我们依旧建议空单逢低先兑现一部分出来, 往下不看很深。。。。有消息传闻,马来西亚这个高龄总理与周边国家领导人频频沟通交流,其中与中国 印度 甚至欧洲部分国家达成经济协议, 特别是印度方面恐将会降低棕榈进口关税,这对马棕榈出口会形成中期利好(2019年1月1日执行)。

小结: 美豆油下探走势延续中,下挫幅度出现收窄迹象。 内盘油脂商品小心翼翼的追随,马盘棕榈油情绪化波动紧跟。。。。整体全球油脂商品仍较为疲软,这种短线走势非常明显, 但从另一个角度来讲,一波杀跌动能衰竭之时,便是期价反身上行之际——–所以我们大脑中另外一根弦也要绷紧,谨防突然的变盘信号的出现。 具体操作上: 激进型交易者手中多空对锁仓单继续持有,多出的那部分空单可遇急跌减仓(同一品种 相同数量的多空仓单叫锁仓 我们现在建议的只是平多出的那一小部分空单兑现出局 我们前期建议的是 多空锁仓时候 其中空单数量略大于多单一定数量)。稳健型散户交易者手中锁仓仓单就先暂时不要盲目乱动,等反身信号更明确时候,我们才会建议空单离场。

• The rout continued in U.S. soybean oil, in tandem with China and Malaysia edible oils.
• Global edible oils remain bearish, however the bearish sentiment may end soon.

• Focus on the appearance of rebound signal.
• Aggressive traders may continue to hold current positions and reduce certain amount of short positions.
• Conservative traders may continue to hold current positions.


This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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