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Global Vegoils Analysis – 10 April 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


中美贸易战恐慌情绪略有缓和,美盘黄豆连一度下跌到980一线后,期价逐步反弹上涨,当前期价反弹到1050一线,从新站上1000美分整数关口之上,短线反弹走势较为明显。 美盘豆油5月合约期价却在低位波动震荡,期价萎靡不振,短线走势无新意,短线失去指导意义。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805(1809主力合约),清明节假期过后,昨日周一首个交易日,内盘油脂普遍高开,早盘时间期价曾一度瞬间暴涨200多点,后内盘豆油冲高回落,终盘以长阴K线收盘, 棕榈油以带长上影线的阴K线收盘。 虽然清明假期期间,中国现货市场普遍上涨100—200多元/吨,但昨日内盘期货市场还是惊喜来的太突然,逢高多头减仓盘造成期价下挫(表明高位还是有压力),今天周二盘面期价在昨日长阴K线右下角波动震荡,昨日技术上的小跳空缺口被弥补。

马盘毛棕榈油5月(或持仓最大的7月),上周五4月6日盘面中阳K线上涨,以棕榈5月为例—-期价上破2460箱体下沿的技术阻挡,并且远离了该位置,马盘棕榈油曾上涨到2512高点。 昨日未开盘报告中,我们曾以为马盘会继续高开,并且建议多单逢高兑现出局, 不料马盘棕榈昨日并未再创新高,在多头获利减仓盘打压下,期价出现逐步走低,今天周二盘面期价再度回到2450—2460令吉特一线,考验箱体下沿支撑力度。

小结:油脂类商品市场恐慌急躁情绪严重,在利多利空消息满天飞基本面影响下(今天4月10日美国农业部将有报告公布马来西亚棕榈油局也有3月份报告出炉),基本面的不确定性造成期价的大幅波动震荡,特别是昨日的内盘油脂商品波动更是剧烈。 昨天周一报告中,我们曾一度建议部分敏感型散户朋友多单逢高减仓操作,先把部分利润逢高兑现出局,相信部分交易者已经完成此交易(这四月中旬了5月份合约的持仓本来也就该减减了),剩余部分多单继续谨慎持有,马盘棕榈油继续关注箱体下沿2450–2460一线的支撑,随后日子继续关注逢高多单减仓机会的把握。

• Global edible oils market routed amid several catalysts.

• Traders are advised to hold or close current positions whenever necessary.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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