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Global Vegoils Analysis – 11 April 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美国农业部(USDA)昨日周二报告出炉:2017/2018年度美国大豆产量预估值保持不变维持在43.92亿蒲式耳,美大豆期末库存预估下调至5.50亿蒲式耳,低于3月份预估值的5.55亿蒲式耳,更低于市场分析人士预测的5.74亿蒲式耳(与市场预期相反)。 巴西大豆产量上调至1.15亿吨,3月份预估为1.13亿吨。 阿根廷大豆产量下调降至4000万吨,3月份预估为4700万吨——从整体报告分析看出,报告性质为中性偏利多。 美盘黄豆连受利多情绪影响,期价继续发力上涨,短线反弹走势明显。 美盘豆油5月合约短线走势却不尽如意,虽然昨晚也是红盘中阳上涨,但期价仍在低位处徘徊震荡不前,方向感不明确。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805(1809主力)合约,受本周一4月9日盘面的“冲高回落”走势影响,长长的阴K线给市场带来负面影响,周二周三盘面期价小阴K线下挫,虽然内盘豆油尚能勉强支撑,但内盘棕榈油下跌较为明显,呈现“昙花一现”冲高走势,5月合约多单减仓迹象明显,而9月合约空头增仓打压迹象明显, 内盘棕榈油受马盘短线影响更大于内盘豆油。

马来西亚棕榈油局(MPOB)昨日周二也发布官方数据:马来西亚棕榈油产量为157万吨,环比增加17.2%,为5个月来首次环比增长。 马来西亚棕榈油截止到3月底库存为232万吨,比上月减少6.2%,但库存数字仍高于此前市场分析人士所预期的227万吨(也与马盘市场相反)。另外船运调查机构SGS发布数据显示,20184月份1—10日马来西亚棕榈油出口量为450.659吨,比3月份同期提高32.6%——-从马来西亚反映的情况,报告呈中性偏空(库存大于市场预期)。马盘毛棕榈油5月(7月),上周五中阳K线上涨之后,短暂突破了箱体下沿的技术阻挡,但持续时间不长,本周前2个交易日期价又下探回来,今天周三上午盘面又继续阴K线表现,短线期价反复较为明显。 考虑到5月中旬“斋月”前印度巴基斯坦的提前备货,零关税的良好出口预期,马盘下方回落空间收窄。

小结:油脂类商品市场贸易战 产量 出口量 库存量各类数据基本面情况不同,造成当前市场投资人士心态不稳,情绪化表现较为严重,短线走势持续性不强,一点点的风吹草动就引起市场剧烈波动—–内盘 马盘本周前三个交易日期价就较为反复, 多亏我们在操作上提前建议部分多单减仓,相信手中剩余多单不多, 暂时持有,继续观察后半周的市场表现。

• Edible oils in different bourses showed dissimilar productions, outputs and stocks data.
• Uncertainty market direction shook investor’s confidence

• Traders are advised to hold or close current positions whenever necessary.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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