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Global Vegoils Analysis – 11 June 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.6.5日周二多空主力疯狂厮杀博弈油脂商品阴K线下跌

美盘大豆昨日周一晚间期价中阴K线下跌,短线反弹之后的回落整理走势延续中(基本符合我们预期)。美盘豆油7月合约,昨日晚间期价也小幅走低,期价回落到均线下方, 期价“强势整理”尾声出现期价下跌。。。。在6月2—3日本周末的中美贸易谈判协议出来后,双方未发布共同声明,这对油脂市场存在一定利空因素影响。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,昨日周一上午盘面还在2440—2450一线徘徊震荡,下午四点左右期价突然下挫,空头增仓主动打压,终盘形成冲高回落的长阴下跌K线。今天周二早盘,期价再度跳空低开,盘面出现弱势苗头,暂时以回落观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约, 受美盘 马盘油脂商品走低影响, 今天周二盘面多空主力拼死厮杀争夺,由于对后市观点看法分歧较大,盘面争夺异常激烈,特别是内盘豆油,多空分歧加大,期价剧烈波动(一会阴K线 一会下影线), 而内盘棕榈油直接追随马盘走低。

小结: 昨天我们报告中刚刚提到—–期价走势模糊,期价波动不大,均线粘合位置需要选择方向,今天周二盘面多空主力就厮杀起来,从今天整体盘面观察, 空头主力占上风,期价下挫幅度较大,我们暂时以短空回落观点对待。 操作上:激进型交易者日内短空交易,并且日内平仓, 稳健型交易者暂时多单逢低接盘稍早,回落整理的结束信号尚未出现, 马盘棕榈离前期低点距离不远(前几次低点在2350—2360一线),届时才可考虑多单适量接盘,目前暂时以短空观点看待。

[SUMMARY]
• Currently, global edible oils experienced retreat.
• Opportunities to initiate long position growing slowly.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders may initiate long positions with less positions.
• Losses will be minimize if the price continue to fall.
• Conservative traders may hold their current position for one more day.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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