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Global Vegoils Analysis – 12 April 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘豆油5月合约,期价继续在低位徘徊震荡,盘面上忽阴忽阳的无序波动,令短线走势方向感不明确,未能给予内盘 马盘油脂商品带来更多的走势指引,暂时忽略美盘豆油短线走势。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805(1809主力)合约,自从本周一冲高回落长阴K线之后,在5月合约多头减仓盘与9月合约的空头打压盘双重力量下,连续4天期价走低,盘面疲软态势较为明显。

马盘毛棕榈油5月(或7月),期价先上破箱体下沿的技术阻再挡,随后又快速回落下来,表明马盘棕榈油期价在高位承压—–当前是马来西亚雨季过后,棕榈油产量逐步走向高峰期,在出口量未出现较大提升局面下,马盘棕榈油总库存恐将呈上升趋势,这也是马盘棕榈期价承压的主要心理因素, 马棕榈短线反弹之后的更小周期层面的整理仍在延续中。

小结:内盘马盘油脂商品短线快速反弹之后的冲高回落走势延续中,短线更小周期(分时图表)的下挫整理主导当前市场,连续4天的回落整理,期价下挫幅度较大,盘面多头人气涣散———“一鼓作气,再而衰,三而竭”,当前油脂商品疲软态势还是比较明显,考虑到已经4天调整,市场超跌之后的反弹恐将推延到本周五至下周初, 部分散户朋友手中剩余多单可于下周寻找逢高减仓的机会,特别是5月交割月剩余时间已经不多(还有半个月持仓时间)。。。从本周的超级疲软市场表现来看,我们有必要对后市中长线角度观点将从新考量思考一下(此前我们分析研判是中线角度层面有一波上涨长线角度层面是以下探寻底观点到底后市是中线的上涨把长线的寻底扭转过来还是长线的下挫把中线的上涨拖累下来截止到目前 中线层面的上涨行情还未真正发生超短线的回落整理在主导市场),等本周末心静时候,我们再从新考量考量,在下周我们报告中再详细提及,当前暂时关注超短线走势为主。

• China and Malaysia edible oils routed, possible rebound on Friday or following week.

• Traders may reduce position.
• Focus on ultra-short term operation on next week.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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