Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Vegoils Analysis – 12 January 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


12.01.2018周五静候美国农业部报告出炉

美盘大豆昨日晚间期价创4个月来新低,美盘豆油3月合约也中阴下跌,当前期价下破原上升趋势线,市场陷入一片恐慌中—–美国当前基本面情况,主流利空情绪主导市场(主要三大层面,巴西大豆产量上调,美大豆出口数据下降,美豆期末库存上调),在重要报告公布前,市场呈现防御性下挫状态,这种盘面走势也可以理解。

大陆内内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,见美盘豆油昨日晚间下破趋势线,今天周五早盘,期价跳空低开低走,中阴K线下跌表现。原先的右侧横盘抵抗整理走势被瞬间打破,市场悲观情绪瞬间从美盘直接传导到内盘,空头主力开始雀跃起来。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,昨日周四盘面就为多头减仓下行,早先的多头获利盘涌出迹象明显,今天周五盘面多头继续减仓,在一片恐慌中形成短暂的“多杀多”走势,期价下挫幅度较大,虽然同是减仓——-早2日与晚2日的区别已经非常清晰,马盘棕榈油防御性动作最为明显——马币走强,马来西亚棕榈油产量下降不及预期,棕榈油总库存高企,棕榈油出口数据不振 。马盘棕榈主要受这四大原因影响。

小结:美国农业部报告将在今晚公布(北京时间周六凌晨1点),当前市场情绪被悲观利空心理影响严重,油脂类商品出现主动性防御动作——多头减仓迹象明显。而我们早在本周二就已经提示多单逢高减仓,暂时规避了该风险,让我们静候美国农业部报告出炉后的市场表现。具体操作上:剩余少量低位拐点附近的多单谨慎持有,关注美盘市场今日晚间的市场表现,若报告严重利空,我们下周初第一时间会及时做出市场操作改变。

[SUMMARY]
• Ahead of the USDA report due to be released tonight, bearish sentiment dominates edible oil markets.
• Long interest appears to have weakened.
• As mentioned on Tuesday, we recommended long positions be reduced to mitigate risks.

[ACTION]
• Traders may cautiously retain long positions but be prepared to liquidate should bearish factors emerge out of the USDA report.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock