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Global Vegoils Analysis – 12 June 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.6.12日周二内盘马盘油脂商品正在考验前低技术支撑位置

美盘豆油7月合约,昨日周一晚间小阳K线表现,期价在5月1日的前低附近试探徘徊———虽然我们目前尚不能确定在前低位置就一定能支撑有效,但从技术层面角度来说, 前低附近逢低做多是最佳的操作策略,因此上我们一定要密切关注美豆油在前低位置的市场表现,是下破? 是支撑? 这将成为我们短线操作的唯一风向标。

大陆内盘豆油1809主力合约,该品种中长线角度一直处于一个大区间波动震荡状态,准确点说—–是从2018.2月6日(或者从2017.12.22日开始)一直到现在,就在5700—6000元/吨,300点区间范围内波动徘徊, 而当前期价已经非常靠近下边轨的5700目标位, 在箱体下沿逢低做多为最佳操作思维。 内盘棕榈油1809主力合约,中长线走势上比豆油略弱一下,为中长线下降趋势(从2016年12月23日开始),虽然更短周期上,期价也曾出现过快速反弹,但反弹之后期价又延续下挫走势,截止到目前,短线角度上当前期价又靠近上一波反弹的低点位置(2018.5月4日的 4930一线),今天日内最低点为4944(相差14个点),存在W型的双重底的可能性。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,今天周二上午盘面为小阴K线走势,期价进入到2350—2360箱体下沿附近,今日期价最低为2347令吉特,这距离2018.5月4的2329令吉(空头陷阱那天)也只相差18个点, 因此上技术性买点也开始进入我们眼帘。

小结:全球整体油脂市场各个品种的短线走势进行到“关键技术位”,市场是准备下破?还是支撑? 到目前为止未给出个明确答案(未出现明显的止跌企稳 或者反身向上的技术信号)———若后市确定为支撑有效,将会出现新的一波反弹上行; 若瞬间毛刺再下破,下破后的下方空间也将非常有限, 因此上我们逢低进多操作思维变得非常可惜, 考虑到这2种走势的不确定性(都有可能发生),我们建议散户朋友在操作上“折中”一下——-既要多单逢低埋伏,也要预防毛刺下破。。。。具体操作上: 激进型散户朋友今日阴K线逢低少量多单进场埋伏(小单量),越靠近箱体下沿越稳妥。 而更稳健型交易者今天也可以进行该操作,但也可以在进场时机上稍微滞后一两天,等待市场再明确一点点再进场也不迟, 心急吃不了热豆腐—–更适合稳健型交易者。

[SUMMARY]
• Global edible oil reached critical support level, further confirmation needed.
• Should it breaks the critical support level, the retreat will not be severe.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders may initiate small amount of long positions.
• Conservative traders may continue to hold current positions for better market direction.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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