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Global Vegoils Analysis – 12 March 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘油脂商品受上周美国农业部利空报告影响,美大豆 豆油双双下挫。 其中美黄豆连是短线反弹过后冲高回落,而美豆油5月合约,是频繁多空转换,你方唱罢我方瞬间登场。。。当前美豆油期价再度临近2018.2月中旬的低位——-美豆油短线周期上的运行节奏始终保持 “反弹–下挫 反弹–下挫”这种运行节奏,并且无论反弹还是下挫,运行的转换频率相当的快。整体来说:美豆油这种短线波动震荡表现, 会在时间上令美豆油中长期角度上的调整显得更为充分, 有利于后期单边行情的酝酿。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,由于印度单方面上调棕榈油进口关税(上调到了10年来最高税率),这从一个侧面会严重影响到马来西亚棕榈油的出口,在悲观利空情绪带动下,上周末3个交易日期价断崖式下坠,直接从短线横盘整理的箱体“下沿”2440一线 “掉”下来, 马盘棕榈领跌本波下挫行情。

对大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油 1805主力合约来说,春节长假回来后的这波行情,我们原本预测的是反弹—-回落—-然后再反弹 ,这种“之字形小3浪”短线走势预案, 因此我们操作上的建议是: 第一波反弹高点时候多单先平仓兑现离场,待回落到下方某低点时候再多单接回,然后等待随后的再次反弹—–这是我们的短线操作思维模式(并且内盘豆油目前还是在运行该节奏中 只回落了50%多点)。 但由于马盘棕榈油突发利空消息, 直接引发了内盘棕榈油的追随性直线下坠,令我们短线操作陷入被动。

小结:上周末全球油脂商品短线期价下跌幅度过大, 下跌速率非常快, 原本预想的简单回落整理给演变成了直线猛烈下跌,以至于短线思维转换没有赶上市场本身的变化频率——从而造成多单接盘操作被取消,而反手空单也未能及时进场这种尴尬局面。 考虑到油脂商品短线暴跌幅度过快过深,更小周期角度已经出现“超卖”痕迹,本周起市场将存在超跌之后的反弹 走势。。。具体操作上:上周五逢低少量接盘被套多单暂时谨慎持有,等待市场反弹修复。 今天周一,部分激进型散户交易者可少量多单逢低进场, 后市短线上存在超跌下坠之后的反弹技术走势要求。

• Last week, global soybean oil plunged in an unexpected rate.
• Global soybean oil is in “oversold”” condition.
• This week, global soybean oil market reversal trend might occurred.

• Resume last Friday’s trading strategy – traders are advised to maintain current positions until reversal signal appear.
• Aggressive traders may initiate small amount of new positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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