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Global Vegoils Analysis – 12 Sep 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.912日周三豆油略强棕榈油稍弱

美盘黄豆连昨日晚间中阴K线下跌,在连续多日前低位置横盘之后,昨日出现的这根阴K线情况不妙——–期价一直在7月16日826.25低点位置徘徊不前,始终不能反身上行,这局面令人担忧,要时刻谨防期价下破前低的可能。 美盘豆油12月合约,昨日期价追随美大豆走低,盘面也呈现中阴K线下跌,今天周三亚洲电子盘期价继续阴K线表现,并且期价已经下破7月13日的前低位置,美盘豆油短线的下挫走势延续中。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油1901主力合约,今天周三上午盘面多头曾抵抗红盘表现,但在内盘棕榈油1901合约期价中阴K线下跌带动下,也出现期价走软迹象,考虑到美盘油脂仍有走低可能,部分锁仓空单暂不解锁,多空仓单对锁继续持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,马来西亚长假期过后,今天周三首个交易日开盘交易,早盘期价小幅低开阴十字星表现,虽然中午时分盘面转红,但盘面上行动能不强,期价仍存在下滑风险,多空对锁仓单继续持有。

小结:美盘大豆 豆油期价再度走软,短线技术上存在“考验前低”的技术支撑要求,前低是否能支撑住?我们尚不能确定(下破风险较大),针对美盘油脂压力重重的弱势表现,我们建议内盘 马盘油脂商品上的多空对锁仓单继续持有,待美盘油脂下挫调整结束后再空单平仓出局,密切关注本周末美盘油脂对7月中旬的前低位置的市场表现,不出意外的话,期价可能会发生瞬间下破的可能。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil routed again, retesting key support level.

[ACTION]
• For Malaysia and China edible oils, traders may continue to hold existing short positions.
• Traders may close current positions after the end of retracement period of US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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