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Global Vegoils Analysis – 13 Aug 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong

2018.8.13日周一美国农业部报告利空 美盘大豆暴跌5%

上周五(8月10日),美国农业部(USDA)公布了8月份供需报告: 2018年度美国大豆单产预估值为51.6蒲式耳/英亩(该数字高于市场所有分析师所预测值),预计2018年度美大豆总产量将达到为创纪录的45.86亿蒲式耳(相当于1.2481亿吨)。 美国农业部还预计,2018/2019年度大豆结转库存也达到创纪录数字——大豆年末库存上调至7.87亿蒲式耳。 受重大利空影响——上周五晚间,美大豆长阴K线暴跌将近5%左右,为三年来最大单日跌幅。 美豆油12月合约也追随性中阴K线下跌,美盘油脂商品一阴包多阳下跌,让我们上周来的担忧情绪成为现实,本周,我们对美盘油脂以下挫回落整理观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,受上周五美盘油脂暴跌影响,今天周一早盘,期价中阴K线低开低走,前期的小碎步反弹态势被“终结”, 一根阴K线的突然出现,行情瞬间发生变盘信号——–下挫回落整理行情拉开序幕。。。。其实在上周,我们就一直保持谨慎态度,未建议继续追高,只是建议“逢高多单平仓离场”,证明我们上周的担忧是明智的。

吉隆坡8月10日消息:马来西亚棕榈油局(MPOB)周五发布的7月份报告显示,2018年7月底马来西亚棕榈油期末库存为221万吨,环比提高1.3%(库存略有增加)。当月棕榈油出口量为121万吨,环比提高6.8%(出口超市场预期)。 MPOB数据还显示,7月份棕榈油产量150万吨,环比提高12.8%(四个月来环比首次增长)——–马棕榈油局报告呈现中性偏利多性质。

但考虑到美盘基本面的严重利空影响,恐将脱离马盘棕榈油, 今天马盘棕榈存在下挫走弱。

小结:美盘农业部报告严重利空,期价大幅度走低,新一波的下挫走势拉开序幕。 大陆内盘油脂 马盘棕榈油恐将被拖累走软,从本周开始,我们对全球油脂商品转为短空思维对待。 具体操作上: 上周多单离场后场外观望的散户朋友,今天早盘可少量反手空单进场,后市市场行情存在再次下挫的可能(虽然下方空间不看很深),但短空思维保持不变。

• US soybean oil nosedived after the release of US government forecast 2018 harvest yield went above all expectations.
• The price plummet in US soybean oil has a spill over effect on China edible oil and Malaysia palm oil.

• Traders may initiate short positions as the downward trend is expected to persist.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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