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Global Vegoils Analysis – 14 Aug 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.8.14日周二短线角度继续短空思维对待

美盘大豆短线下挫态势依旧较为明显,瞬间的长阴暴跌K线(一阴包多阳),令前期反弹走势突然被扭转。美盘豆油12月合约,在上周我们就观察到出现反弹动能衰竭迹象,上周五的中阴K线,瞬间令短线下挫走势变得明显,由于前提反弹上行的空间不是很大,因此本波下挫的空间我们也暂时不要看深——具体回落空间有待我们后市短线盘中密切观察。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,昨日周一早盘,受美盘重大利空情绪影响,期价低开低走,终盘以带下影线的阴K线收盘。今天周二早盘期价低开高走小阳K线表现——内盘油脂商品短线也出现我们上周所担忧的下挫走势,从昨天的下影线与今天的小阳红盘表现来看,盘面上多头主力仍在抵抗,但这种抵抗恐怕效果不大,后市只要周一的阴K线不被“吞回”,我们继续保持短空思维观点不变。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,昨天受美盘 内盘油脂商品期价走低拖累,早盘瞬间低开低走,今天周二盘面期价继续“并列阴K线”下跌——前期马盘棕榈油反弹幅度最小,因此新一波的下挫行情的回落空间也应该不是很大,我们继续谨慎的短空思维对待。

小结:全球油脂商品短线下挫回落整理态势又逐渐明晰起来,在上周我们早早就建议前期多单逐步逢高减磅,然后出场观望,未建议继续追多,就是谨防反弹动能衰竭后的突然坠落。。。在昨日早盘,我们建议场外观望交易者反手空单进场试盘,我们的思维意图就是——-尽量沿着期价运行轨迹操作,规避一些不必要的市场风险。 虽然后市短线下方空间我们并不看很深(我们在中长线大周期角度依旧看多 特别是今年的第四季度 至明年第一季度后期 届时恐将发生供不应求的大豆原料采购困难),但从眼前的短线角度来说,低位区域的任何再次短线下挫行情也是我们要首先规避的,因此我们当前继续以短线操作为主流思想。操作上:昨日新进空单暂时谨慎持有,散户朋友们密切关注下方回落空间大小。

[SUMMARY]
• Global edible oils rallied after yesterday’s retracement.

[ACTION]
• Traders may hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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