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Global Vegoils Analysis – 14 March 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.3.14日周三全球油脂类商品短周期反弹雏形初步形成

南美阿根廷大豆种植区旱情严重,据消息称已经达到数十年来旱情最严重情况—–持续4个月的干旱恐将令该国大豆出现深幅度减产。受此消息影响美盘大豆期价得到一定提振。美盘豆油5月合约,昨日周二晚间中阳K线红盘上涨,期价上涨到32.20一线,下方前低的31.60一线技术支撑有效。后市美豆油存在反身走高再次上攻可能。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约,昨日周二盘面,长下影线的出现—–表明下方有多头主力接盘,今天周三早盘继续红盘上涨表现,短线反弹雏形拉开序幕。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,从本周一开始,已经“三颗红小兵”阳K线连续上涨,上周暴跌之后的短线修复动作进行中。。。上周我们报告中提到过: 马棕榈的一波快速杀跌是以“连续4次跳空”展开的,其中的前2次跳空是模糊状态, 而最后2次跳空是措手不及的猛烈直线下蹲,而当盘中出现第四个跳空缺口时候,杀跌动能得到完全释放, 当前连续走高的3颗阳K线是对前期缺口的修复,在短线走势上符合我们上周末的市场预期。

小结:全球油脂商品短线止跌企稳,急挫之后的修复动作展开——虽然当前期价上涨幅度不是很大,但短线角度的做多人气正在聚集。 对于内盘 马盘油脂商品来说—–还需要一根更强烈的长阳K线来扭转前期的疲软态势,让我们耐心等待后市市场的表现。 具体操作上: 上周老多单与本周一新进多单继续持有,在远离下方技术支撑点之后,后市我们以短多观点谨慎看高一线。

[SUMMARY]
• Global soybean oil rebounded steadily since last week plunge.
• Buying momentum showed sign of increase, but more time needed to turn the table.

[ACTION]
• Traders who have previous and new positions are advised to hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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