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Global Vegoils Analysis – 14 May 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.5.14日周一今天马盘棕榈油开盘交易跳空补涨

美盘豆油7月合约,期价继续小幅震荡走高,当前期价31.30一线,上穿20天均线后,正逐步靠近上方的40天均线,美豆油短线技术反弹走势延续中, 仅仅是上涨的幅度略小,盘面后续推力不足,我们继续以谨慎的“弱势反弹”观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,上周盘面表现不俗,特别是内盘棕榈油,期价连续几天反弹上涨到上方60天均线处,继续关注60天均线位置的后市表现。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,上周末连续停盘三天(政治因素 周三 周四 周五), 今天周一早盘正式开盘交易,早盘期价跳空高开于2437令吉特,惯性上冲到2452令吉,今天的期价比上周二的收盘价2379令吉涨幅一度达到2.3%左右, 马盘毛棕榈油今天的补涨走势符合我们此前预期。 当前马盘棕榈油瞬间也跳跃到60天均线处—–该位置存在一定技术压力,后市让我们继续关注60天线是被向上突破?还是阻挡。

小结:国际原油市场因伊朗问题,全球担忧原油出口产生阻碍,美国纽约原油 英国布伦特原油双双反弹上涨, 棕榈油的生物原油参和效应凸显利好,刺激棕榈油期价走高, 内盘 马盘油脂商品短线反弹走势延续中。 由于棕榈油当前期价反弹到60天均线位置(短线角度的均线系统为空头排列),后市是上破还是阻挡尚不明朗——因此在期价反弹到60天均线高度后,不排除有部分激进人士多单获利减仓盘涌出现象出现,这种情绪可以理解。 具体操作上: 前期新老接盘多单继续持有,其中部分激进型散户朋友可在60天均线位置,多单适量减仓兑现出局, 因为我们当前的反弹观点暂时定义为“弱势反弹”, 因此防范期价在技术位“万一”受阻的担忧思虑 也不能掉以轻心——一颗红心两手准备,稳健型交易者多单继续持有,激进型散户朋友可适量多单逢高减持兑现利润出局。

[SUMMARY]
• Crude oil rose due to US sanction on Iran affected output and caused price to rose.
• The rise in crude oil price benefited palm oil future due to hybrid biofuel between palm oil and crude oil.
• Palm oil reached 60 days moving average. Thus, this triggered certain aggressive traders to take profit.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders may close position due to palm oil reached 60 days moving average.
• Conservative traders could hold current position.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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