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Global Vegoils Analysis – 14 Sep 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.9.14日周五全球油脂市场波澜不惊散户交易者继续保持观望

美盘大豆继续在前低位置蛰伏不动,短线走势上没有给出明显的上涨或者下跌信号,基本上呈现横盘波动上下两难境界。 美盘豆油12月合约,期价短线阴K线下挫走势仍较为明显,在日K线图表上空头排列的均线系统压制下,美豆油暂时积重难返,以时间换空间的下探寻支撑走势恐将仍延续一段时间,但下方的空间却十分有限,我们也不建议追空操作。

大陆内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,短线走势无序波动震荡,基本上也呈现弱势横盘走势,盘中方向感不强,多空主力成交清淡,市场观望气氛较浓。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,上周经过短促上涨之后,本周又出现急促下跌,盘面上短线走势多空转换较快,操作难度较大,当前棕榈油市场基本面情况较为复杂,多空因素参杂(库存量 产量 出口量 关税 令吉特汇率 生物柴油 印度中国的节假日需求)。。。。随着时间推移,马来西亚棕榈油的产量高峰期会逐步消退(10月份以后产量会进入减产周期), 当前内盘豆油 棕榈油差价已经超过千元/吨,后期棕榈油的替代作用会逐步被市场发现。

小结:往年全球油脂商品市场从春天开始都会出现一波“天气炒作”行情,但今年却被特朗普老头发起的中美贸易战风波给抢了风头,政策面的不确定性令全球油脂商品短线走势也出现模棱两可走势,弄的投资人士 分析人士 人心惶惶,盘面上情绪化走势较为严重,而不确定性因素又引发操作难度大增,就如同特朗普老头的脾气性格一样,让人琢磨不定。。。。中国每年大豆进口需求大约在9500万吨—-1亿万吨左右,也就是说每个月需要进口800—900万吨, 随着中国拒绝进口美国大豆, 而巴西 阿根廷 大豆的后期供应会跟不上,其他一些小国的大豆产量又较低,杯水车薪根本不够中国庞大市场消费。 。。据国内大豆经销商分析:11月份大豆进口会减少到590万吨,12月份减少到560万吨,到来年1月份则会减少到260万吨,届时恐将国内出现大豆供应缺口, 这也跟我们技术上分析的中长线角度的预测结果不谋而合,所以我们坚定的认为,当前油脂市场正在大底部区域徘徊酝酿“大底”,后期中长线角度发生一波凌厉需求性上涨概率大增。。。。仅仅是短线角度“过渡期”的横盘波动震荡,我们继续抱有冷眼观望态度,暂时忽略不计。 操作上:短线多空对锁仓单继续持有,耐心等待后期市场给出明确答案。

[SUMMARY]
• Uncertainty in global edible oils increased trading difficulty.
• Import of soybean oil to China is forecasted to be reduced to 260 million tonnes on January 2019, causing supply shortage due to trade war.

[ACTION]
• Traders may hold current short positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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