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Global Vegoils Analysis – 15 Aug 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.8.15日周三油脂商品短线角度下挫整理走势延续中

美盘黄豆连上周五一根长阴暴跌K线,令上周五之前的反弹上行走势被“终结”。 本周初的头两天期价在长阴K线的右下角波动反复,虽然以阳K线形势抵抗,但短线的回落整理走势还在进行中。 美盘豆油12月合约,前期期价反弹至40天均线处受到技术阻挡,反弹动能衰竭之后,当前期价存在再次下挫要求,我们继续保持短空观点不变。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,受美国农业部利空报告悲观情绪影响,本周一期价低开低走,周一较长的下影线—–表明内盘多头还未完全放弃,随后周二周三期价在右侧略微抵抗整理,但该抵抗动作阻止不了期价的再次下挫(当前时机也不理想,国内油脂商品的消费高峰在第四季),我们以时间换空间的谨慎短空观点对待,不回落调整到位,不出现新“低位”,我们多单不进场接盘。

马来西亚毛棕榈油基准10月,当前时期仍是马盘棕榈油的产量高峰季节期(8–9–10),盘面期价上行难度心理压力因此较大,随着时间推移,马盘后期产量会逐步萎缩,届时棕榈油库存将会下降, 因此我们中长线角度仍以多头观点对待,仅仅是短线短线时机不利马盘棕榈油走高——但由于马盘棕榈油整体仍处于“低价区域”,因此上,我们短线的看空是以谨慎保守的观点对待。

小结:油脂类商品在前期反弹上行(或横盘波动)之后,短线角度出现再次的回落整理走势,在盘面上无论是多空主力在磨蹭时间也好,还是技术上反弹动能衰竭也好,我们暂时以谨慎的短空观点对待,后市短线存在期价下挫可能,但较猛烈的大空间下挫也许不会那么明显。。。操作上:新进反手空单继续谨慎持有,同时关注本波下挫整理的具体空间大小,当后期整理较为充分之后,届时我们会在“某个相对低位”区域逢低平空翻多接盘,这才是我们后市主要操作目标。

[SUMMARY]
• Global edible oil routed, erased earlier gains.

[ACTION]
• Traders may hold current short positions.
• Traders should focus on rebound signal.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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1 Comment to Global Vegoils Analysis – 15 Aug 2018

  • Casey Wang's Gravatar Casey Wang
    September 5, 2018 at 9:24 PM | Permalink

    I like this website as it provides with opinions of other trader too. Very useful. Thank you.

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