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Global Vegoils Analysis – 15 March 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.3.15日周四马盘棕榈油昨日触及原横盘箱体整理的“下沿”

有消息称阿根廷本周五将迎来微量降雨,市场担心前期旱情恐将缓解—–其实阿根廷干旱时间已经很久,一点点少量降雨已经挽救不了减产局面。 另有美国调查机构称,美国今年大豆种植户播种意愿强烈,美大豆的播种面积恐将增加200万英亩。受此影响,昨日周三晚间美豆 美豆油双双下跌, 美盘油脂商品仍处于“天气炒作”氛围内, 随着后期4–5月份美国 中国大豆开始播种,后期的天气炒作还将延续。 对美豆油5月合约昨日晚间的中阴K线来说,只要不下破前几天低点,我们继续短多反弹观点对待,暂时忽略美盘情绪化波动。

大陆内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约,今天周四盘面期价小幅走弱阴K线表现,我们昨天报告提到过,内盘油脂商品本周二下影线出现后,还需要一根长阳K线来确认反弹走势的展开,今天盘面在小幅整理积蓄能量,继续关注后市表现。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,昨日周三盘面期价高开高走,终盘阳K线收盘于2440令吉特——–这是一个微妙的收盘价格,前期我们提到过,2440一线是原箱体的“下沿”(2017.12.22日 2018.1.19日低点连线),在上周四3.8日瞬间跳下来后(下破),在下面近维持了2天,随后3根阳K线上涨,昨日周四期价“反抽”箱体下沿 。。。在这个微妙技术位,后市会出现2种短线走势—–1.下破之后再反抽一下,若再次受到阻挡,期价再度承压扭头掉下来。 2.期价反抽箱体下沿,突然再发力上攻上去, 来确认原来的下破为“假下破”。 后市短线只有这2种走势,如果让我们提前预测的话, 我个人更倾向于后者多一些。 今天周四盘面马棕榈将在2440下方徘徊震荡整理(也不排除会小幅走低),积蓄市场上攻动能。

小结:美盘油脂短线走势还是略显不振,盘中更多模棱两可状态。 马盘毛棕榈油3天反弹上涨走到关键技术位,在2440箱体下沿一线——空头主力势必要牢守该线阵地不被攻破,多头主力恐将积蓄能量准备上攻,多空主力在2440一线肯定要做“一字排开 两军对垒的激烈交锋”,孰胜孰负等待我们市场观察。 具体操作上: 只要当前期价不再跌破内盘 马盘 3.12 3.13日下影线的低点,我们前期多单就继续持有,等待市场给出明确答案。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil showed no sign of recovering.
• Malaysia palm oil rebounded to significant technical level at 2,440.

[ACTION]
• Traders who have previous and new positions are advised to hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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