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Global Vegoils Analysis – 15 May 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


美盘豆油7月合约,从5月1日以来,持续保持震荡小幅上扬走势,期价从30.15低点位置上涨到31.30一线,虽然每天涨幅不大,但上行脚步延续中,当前期价正靠近日K线图表上40天均线处, 在盘面未发生大的变化前,我们继续以空头排列均线系统下的“弱势反弹”观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1809主力合约,最近2周,内盘植物油现货市场价格上涨,期货市场也追随性反弹攀升,其中棕榈油上涨幅度略大于豆油,棕强油弱迹象明显——此前重仓的空头主力军团持仓数量略减,空头主力减仓盘的涌出是造成本波反弹上行技术走势的主要动能, 我们继续关注后续动能的新变化,当前暂时仍以短多观点对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,上周末经过三天政治因素停盘,昨日周一正式开盘交易——昨天早盘期价跳空高开,由于跳空补涨幅度过大,昨日盘面出现“冲高回落”痕迹(部分多头逢高减仓兑现利润 )。今天周二上午盘面,期价继续高开2425一线, 而马盘毛棕榈油7月60天均线位置恰好在2425—2430一线,今天马盘棕榈油在该位置徘徊震荡。

小结: 美盘豆油继续不温不火的小幅度震荡攀升反弹, 内盘马盘棕榈油期价反弹到日K线图表上60天均线处—–我们此前说过,该位置为关键技术位, 期价在该位置是受阻?还是上破? 则成为后市短线走势风向标, 由于整体油脂上扬走势 尚未给出明确答案,因此上投资人士必将心理上出现一些分歧————而我们昨日建议恰好是折中了一下这种不确定性, 建议激进敏感型交易者先逢高兑现出局一部分多单,先入袋为安锁定部分账户盈利, 而稳健型交易者在盘面未发生短线反弹终结信号前则多单继续持有。。。。今天操作建议是: 已经部分平仓兑现出局的散户朋友手中剩余多单继续持有,稳健型交易者多单继续持仓不动,密切关注后市棕榈油在60天均线位置的表现,若上破成功则多单继续持有,若受阻回落,再多单全部平仓了结 然后反手做空不迟。

• US soybean oil rose gradually while Malaysia and China edible oil reached 60 days moving average.

• Traders are advised to hold current positions.
• Traders may hold current positions If palm oil market successfully broke key technical point at 60 days moving average. Otherwise, traders may close current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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