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Global Vegoils Analysis – 15 Nov 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.11.15日周四美盘豆油回落整理超跌之后反弹序幕即将拉开

国际原油近期大跌,美盘豆油却不为所动,并未追随国际原油期价继续走低,美豆油1月合约,短线回落整理之后已经处于短线超跌的极限状态, 昨日周三晚间小阳十字星K线之后,美豆油技术上超跌反弹序幕即将拉开(跌无可跌)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1901主力合约,昨日周三盘面中阴K线下跌走势,盘中杀跌动能得到一定释放,今天周四十字星K线止跌,虽然盘中观望气氛仍然较浓,但期价继续下挫的动能减弱,超跌之后的技术反弹要求强烈。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,在马来西亚高库存的悲观利空情绪被逐渐吸收消化之后,市场恐慌情绪开始缓解,在昨日周三跳空低开之后,今天周四盘面期价未再出现创新低, 1965令吉特的低点恐将是近期短线“新低”, 马盘棕榈油期价下破2000令吉特之后的“价值投资洼地”会逐渐被市场所发现,后市短线继续下挫空间极窄。

小结: 美盘豆油短线回落整理接近极限状态,短线技术反弹走势“呼之欲出”。 内盘 马盘油脂商品经过这几天的瞬间加速急跌之后,盘中杀跌动能得到完全释放,后市继续杀跌动能恐将衰竭———当前内盘 马盘油脂商品的中长线多头投资“洼地”就在跟前,此时此刻坚决不能再盲目悲观的看空很多。 具体操作上: 前期被套多单继续持有,手中无仓单的散户朋友可逢低少量多单进场“埋伏试盘”操作。 另外,部分激进型散户朋友也可少量多单进场,以摊低前期多单持仓成本,当前油脂商品的短线反弹要求强烈,后市期价会短线逐步走高。

[SUMMARY]
• U.S. soybean oil may rebound soon, so do China and Malaysia edible oils.

[ACTION]
• Traders may hold current positions.
• Aggressive traders may initiate intra-day short positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 











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