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Global Vegoils Analysis – 16 July 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.7.16日周一内盘油脂商品临近“关键技术位”

美盘油脂类商品大豆豆油短线下挫走势延续中,盘面上受中美贸易战利空消息影响严重,期价已经下挫到十年来(2008年金融危机时候)的低点位置,美盘豆油12月合约,短线“一蹶不振”的疲软走势延续中,对美盘油脂我们继续保持短空观点,但后市下方的回落空间正在逐步收窄。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1809主力合约,内盘油脂短线呈现抵抗性下跌,期价正在面临在6月19–20日前低位置的技术考验,我们不能排除期价瞬间下破前低的可能性,但也不能排除期价在前低位置做短线角度的“W型双底的可能”,因此上说,内盘油脂当前处于一个很微妙的境地,是支撑是下破,有待我们本周继续观察。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月(前期我们在棕榈油8月合约上所有多单早早就建议 临近交割前月,提前多单平仓离场), 当前马盘棕榈油短线走势最为疲软,受马来西亚棕榈油出口不振利空影响,以及受全球豆油期价下跌的“商品替代效应”不利影响——-马盘棕榈油9月,期价率先在7月11日就提前下破了6月19日的前低技术位置,因此马盘棕榈油短线空头思维继续保持不变(但也需谨防市场触底反弹可能)。

小结:美盘油脂喋喋不休,内盘 马盘油脂也追随走软,最近全球油脂商品期价下跌幅度较大,盘面表现较为疲软。。。。今天周一盘面出现久违的“低开高走的阳K线”,今天盘面上出现的减仓上行痕迹——–为部分空头逢低平仓离场动作信号,让我们关注随后2天主力动向,期价是否出现“止跌企稳”痕迹, 届时我们短线反手空单也要逢低平仓离场,而部分手中多空对锁仓单也要时刻准备好“解锁”操作(平空单 留多单),当前部分油脂品种已经隐隐出现“底背离”的下跌技术盘口语言,因此上我们不再继续看下方空间有多深? 暂时以保守的谨慎观点多观察一半天, 而稳健型交易者虽然在场外观望——但也要关注期价疯狂下跌过后的多单逢低进场机会(永远没有只跌不涨的市场 更没有只涨不跌的市场 ),关注市场再度涨跌转换的市场行情把握,我们对全球油脂商品今年第四季度以及来年第一季度的市场行情依旧保留谨慎看多观点不变(届时不排除出现 供不应求的大豆短缺的可能性)。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil routed, in tandem with China and Malaysia edible oils.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders may hold small amount of current positions.
• Conservative traders may hold off until better entry points exist while observing market reversal trend.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 












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