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Global Vegoils Analysis – 16 March 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


2018.3.16日周五本周马盘毛棕榈油“5连阳”反弹

美盘豆油5月合约,本周一低位小阳K线带下影线(前低受支撑),周二中阳反身上涨(错列2根阳K线 反弹雏形),周三又中阳K线掉下来(期价反复 盘中情绪化浓厚),周四再度中阳红盘上涨(再次把期价从前的低31.60一线拉起来),今天周五亚洲电子盘在昨日周四阳K线右上角徘徊(32.10一线)———-美盘豆油本周5个交易日期价“反复”,盘中多空主力情绪不稳定,造成短线走势上人为性的“模糊”,我们不受美盘来回忽悠,思路上继续保持——只要期价在31.60一线上方运行就继续保持短多观点不变。

大陆内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1805主力合约,本周5个交易日三阳二阴走势,其中周三 周四2天期价为小阴K线整理, 本周二的长下影线存在多头主力低位接盘,只要期价不下破该低点,短多思维不变。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月, 短线又成为“耀眼明星品种”——-在上周末连续3天“断崖式”阴K线坠落之后, 从本周一开始,截止到现在周五中午时分,为5连阳红盘K线走势,期价瞬间反身“攻击”原箱体下沿技术位置(2440—2450一线), 该技术位的重要性我们屡次提到过(包括前几天下破时候)。。。我们这里打个比方吧,让部分不太明白的散户朋友思维上更清晰些——–假如你家住在5楼并且生活了很久,突然有一天(3月8号早上),你突然从你家5层的地板上掉下到4楼邻居家里, 这时你再抬头看5楼的地板却发现变成了4楼的“天花板”, 这时候你肯定会很苦恼,原来的支撑现在变成了阻挡——你是会选择默默忍受就在4楼生活呢(楼下邻居愿意吗)? 还是想办法回到你原来的家? 幸好市场很短时间就给出了我们答案———搬了把梯子 用5天时间又爬到了原来地板破洞位置, 这时刻情绪就比较微妙了—–你从地板刚露出头,有可能原来的家不是你的了,有陌生人会用木棍打压你下去,而楼下的人又推着你的脚赶你上去,你好为难啊。。。到底是上去呢 还是下去? 这就是我们当前马盘棕榈油的内心感受! 这也是我们技术上经常讲到的“支撑与阻挡”互换关心, 唯一的办法——就看那方的能量更大一些,方向也就出来了。。。。我们短线继续保持短多观点不变,但不排除下周初期价在这个技术位置出现波动徘徊(毕竟5连阳之后 更小周期上出现一定超买)。

小结: 美盘豆油本周短线仍略显模糊走势, 马盘棕榈油短线率先反弹发力上行(前面跌的过快),内盘油脂在二者夹缝中生存左右追随, 全球油脂类商品短线反弹上行走势上意愿还是有分歧———–而我们却意志坚定的保持短多观点不变, 不受盘面分歧情绪干扰。 具体操作上: 前期新老多单继续持有,对于本周一低位新进场多单来说,部分激进型散户朋友可下周初多单逢高获利平仓出局(不排除下周初期价会反复一下),而稳健型交易者可暂时忽略更小周期的阴K线整理, 后市短线我们继续保持短多思维不变 。

[SUMMARY]
• This week, US soybean oil remain unclear.
• Malaysia palm oil rebounded while China soybean oil is in consolidation phase.
• We should maintain the same strategy and not distracted by the divergence of the current market trend.

[ACTION]
• Traders who have previous and new positions are advised to hold current positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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